Lincoln (CA) vs. Tennessee State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lincoln (CA)0-7

00

Tennessee State0-1

▸0054

Final

Nissan Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LINC	0	0	0	0	0
TENN	14	20	20	0	54

LINCTeam statsTENN

145Total yards396

93Pass82

52Rush314

13First downs22

7-173rd down4-7

3Turnovers0

35:44Possession24:16

Scoring plays

• Q3 0:50TENNDeveon Bryant 14 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–54
• Q3 8:02TENNJordan Gant 6 Yd Run (James Lowery PAT failed)0–47
• Q3 11:48TENNDraylen Ellis 4 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–41
• Q2 1:17TENNJordan Gant 3 Yd Run (Ahmed Mohamed PAT blocked)0–34
• Q2 6:14TENNDelanie Majors 2 Yd pass from Draylen Ellis (James Lowery Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:45TENNJalen Rouse 12 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:21TENNJordan Gant 3 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:08TENNJordan Gant 31 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• LINC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

TENN 100%50%LINC 100%

Kickoff140 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

TENN (top)LINC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TENN 100%

Leaders

Lincoln (CA)

• PassTJ Goodwin 7/16, 77 YDS, 1 INT
• RushOtis Weah 14 CAR, 46 YDS
• RecTeriq Phillips 2 REC, 42 YDS

Tennessee State

• PassDeveon Bryant 5/7, 54 YDS
• RushJalen Rouse 12 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJalen Rouse 2 REC, 30 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

126

Points / snap

0.43

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

TENN up 54 entering the 4th quarter. Across 57 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

TENN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WToledo vs Texas Southern71-3WUCF vs New Hampshire57-3WKennesaw State vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg63-3WGeorgia vs Florida State63-3WCentral Michigan vs Central Connecticut65-10

Fourth downs

10 calls

TENN gave up 1.0 points to the model on fourth down.LINC 7/7 · TENN 1/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lincoln (CA) vs. Tennessee State?

Lincoln (CA) 0, Tennessee State 54.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LINC

TENN

36%

Success rate

52%

-0.35

EPA / pass

0.40

-0.04

EPA / rush

0.48

34%

Early-down success

51%

25%

Pass success

47%

45%

Rush success

53%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

42%

Pass rate

25%

8.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

LINC

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

TENN

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LINC		TENN
145	Total yards	396
93	Passing yards	82
52	Rushing yards	314
13	First downs	22
7-17	3rd down	4-7
1-3	4th down	0-0
11/21	Comp/Att	9/15
4.4	Yards per pass	5.5
1.2	Yards per rush	7.3
3	Turnovers	0
8-70	Penalties	5-59
35:44	Possession	24:16

Fourth downs

10 calls

LINC

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

TENN

1/2 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 4:09 TENN punt on 4th & 4 at LINC 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.

Every call, priced (10)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LINC 0/11 scoring drives← own end zone →TENN 8/11 scoring drives

TENNTD9 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

LINCDOWNS9 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q1

TENNPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 43Q1

LINCFUM2 pl, 5 yds· own 1Q1

TENNTD4 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q1

LINCPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· own 25Q1

TENNTD4 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q1

TENNTD11 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q2

LINCDOWNS9 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q2

TENNTD11 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q2

LINCPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

LINCEND6 pl, 31 yds· own 27Q2

TENNTD1 pl, 4 yds· opp 4Q3

LINCUncateg6 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

LINCINT6 pl, 2 yds· own 16Q3

TENNTD3 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q3

LINCPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q3

TENNTD6 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3

LINCPUNT13 pl, 39 yds· own 18Q3

TENNPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 14Q4

LINCPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 39Q4

TENNUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 0:50TENNDeveon Bryant 14 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–54
• Q3 8:02TENNJordan Gant 6 Yd Run (James Lowery PAT failed)0–47
• Q3 11:48TENNDraylen Ellis 4 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–41
• Q2 1:17TENNJordan Gant 3 Yd Run (Ahmed Mohamed PAT blocked)0–34
• Q2 6:14TENNDelanie Majors 2 Yd pass from Draylen Ellis (James Lowery Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:45TENNJalen Rouse 12 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:21TENNJordan Gant 3 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:08TENNJordan Gant 31 Yd Run (James Lowery Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →