Lamar vs. South Dakota: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lamar0-1

06

South Dakota0-1

▸0035

Final

DakotaDome

	1	2	3	4	T
LAMA	3	3	0	0	6
SOUT	0	7	14	14	35

LAMATeam statsSOUT

274Total yards401

169Pass96

105Rush305

22First downs22

6-163rd down2-3

2Turnovers2

31:41Possession28:19

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:23SOUTNate Thomas 2 Yd Run (Zeke Mata Kick)6–35
• Q4 10:47SOUTTravis Theis 32 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)6–28
• Q3 4:12SOUTJJ Galbreath 20 Yd pass from Aidan Bouman (Will Leyland Kick)6–21
• Q3 9:27SOUTNate Thomas 1 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)6–14
• Q2 2:14SOUTTravis Theis 2 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)6–7
• Q2 10:06LAMAChris Esqueda 26 Yd Field Goal 6–0
• Q1 4:53LAMAChris Esqueda 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0

How the model called it

Market line

SOUT −24

Against the number

SOUT covered

line SOUT −24

What the numbers say

• LAMA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SOUT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.7 vs 3rd & 3.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%LAMA 100%

Kickoff129 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)LAMA (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SOUT −24

Closing total

48.0

Model line

—

Actual result

LAMA 6 – 35 SOUT

Leaders

Lamar

• PassRobert Coleman 14/24, 144 YDS, 1 INT
• RushKhalan Griffin 15 CAR, 61 YDS
• RecKyndon Fuselier 4 REC, 37 YDS

South Dakota

• PassAidan Bouman 7/9, 96 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushNate Thomas 19 CAR, 164 YDS, 2 TD
• RecJack Martens 2 REC, 34 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

118

Points / snap

0.35

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

SOUT up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,205 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

95%

SOUT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArkansas vs Kent State28-6WFlorida State vs Boston College31-29WFlorida State vs Virginia Tech39-17WMissouri vs South Carolina34-12WFlorida Atlantic vs Charlotte38-16

Fourth downs

9 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.LAMA 7/7 · SOUT 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lamar vs. South Dakota?

Lamar 6, South Dakota 35.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (SOUT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LAMA

SOUT

41%

Success rate

67%

-0.32

EPA / pass

0.33

0.14

EPA / rush

0.65

42%

Early-down success

66%

34%

Pass success

56%

50%

Rush success

69%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

5%

54%

Pass rate

19%

6.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.0

LAMA

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

3.0 yards to go on 3rd down

48 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LAMA		SOUT
274	Total yards	401
169	Passing yards	96
105	Rushing yards	305
22	First downs	22
6-16	3rd down	2-3
2-2	4th down	1-1
16/29	Comp/Att	7/9
5.8	Yards per pass	10.7
2.7	Yards per rush	7.8
2	Turnovers	2
5-49	Penalties	6-67
31:41	Possession	28:19

Fourth downs

9 calls

LAMA

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

SOUT

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LAMA 2/8 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 5/8 scoring drives

LAMAFUM13 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q1

LAMAFG7 pl, 12 yds· opp 21Q1

SOUTINT5 pl, 38 yds· own 15Q1

LAMAFG13 pl, 75 yds· own 16Q1

SOUTTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

LAMAPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 35Q2

SOUTEND2 pl, 16 yds· own 15Q2

SOUTTD9 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q3

LAMAPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q3

SOUTTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

LAMAMISS10 pl, 62 yds· own 26Q3

SOUTTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4

LAMAPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 17Q4

SOUTTD6 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ4

LAMAINT11 pl, 56 yds· own 38Q4

SOUTEND1 pl, 14 yds· own 1Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:23SOUTNate Thomas 2 Yd Run (Zeke Mata Kick)6–35
• Q4 10:47SOUTTravis Theis 32 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)6–28
• Q3 4:12SOUTJJ Galbreath 20 Yd pass from Aidan Bouman (Will Leyland Kick)6–21
• Q3 9:27SOUTNate Thomas 1 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)6–14
• Q2 2:14SOUTTravis Theis 2 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)6–7
• Q2 10:06LAMAChris Esqueda 26 Yd Field Goal 6–0
• Q1 4:53LAMAChris Esqueda 26 Yd Field Goal 3–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →