Kansas vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsTEX
- Q4 5:34TEXQuinn Ewers 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)14–40
- Q4 13:06TEXAdonai Mitchell 9 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)14–33
- Q3 2:33TEXJonathon Brooks 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–26
- Q3 11:36KUTrevor Wilson 58 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Seth Keller Kick)14–20
- Q3 13:28TEXJonathon Brooks 54 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–20
- Q2 11:15TEXBert Auburn 30 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 14:05KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 18 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:52TEXBert Auburn 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:06TEXQuinn Ewers 30 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 28% success rate
- PassJason Bean 9/21, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDevin Neal 8 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecTrevor Wilson 1 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- PassQuinn Ewers 25/35, 325 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJonathon Brooks 21 CAR, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAdonai Mitchell 10 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,517 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:36KU +8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 58 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q2 14:05KU +7%
Daniel Hishaw Jr. 18 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)
- Q1 10:06TEX +7%
Quinn Ewers run for 30 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
- Q3 2:33TEX +6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 13:28TEX +6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 54 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Texas?
Kansas 14, Texas 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| KU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 661 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 325 |
| 124 | Rushing yards | 336 |
| 11 | First downs | 33 |
| 0-8 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 9/21 | Comp/Att | 25/35 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 4-34 |
| 20:19 | Possession | 39:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:16 KU punt on 4th & 2 at KU 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:34TEXQuinn Ewers 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)14–40
- Q4 13:06TEXAdonai Mitchell 9 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)14–33
- Q3 2:33TEXJonathon Brooks 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–26
- Q3 11:36KUTrevor Wilson 58 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Seth Keller Kick)14–20
- Q3 13:28TEXJonathon Brooks 54 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–20
- Q2 11:15TEXBert Auburn 30 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 14:05KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 18 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:52TEXBert Auburn 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:06TEXQuinn Ewers 30 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1888, KU Elo 1480 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -18.7 (89% to win) — 2.2 points clear of TEX's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas leads 18–4 · Texas has won 2 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| KU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.7 (#14) | CORE overall | +26.0 (#7) |
| +18 / +0 | offense / defense | +12 / -14 |
| 3.11 | points / drive | 2.94 |
| 2.31 | allowed / drive | 1.47 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →