Georgia State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsUSU
- Q4 4:48USUTerrell Vaughn 2 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (McCae Hillstead Pass to Jalen Royals for Two-Point Conversion)45–22
- Q4 9:18GASTFreddie Brock 5 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)45–14
- Q3 6:02GASTCadarrius Thompson 37 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)38–14
- Q2 1:17GASTCadarrius Thompson 23 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)31–14
- Q2 7:30GASTLiam Rickman 31 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q1 0:15GASTTailique Williams 27 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:41USUDavon Booth 65 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:57GASTDarren Grainger 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:15USUJalen Royals 35 Yd pass from Levi Williams (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:36GASTDarren Grainger 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDarren Grainger 19/22, 257 YDS, 3 TD
- RushFreddie Brock IV 24 CAR, 276 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCadarrius Thompson 5 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLevi Williams 12/21, 131 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDavon Booth 4 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTerrell Vaughn 8 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Utah State?
Georgia State 45, Utah State 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 643 | Total yards | 346 |
| 257 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 386 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 19/22 | Comp/Att | 19/32 |
| 11.7 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 7.9 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-107 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 36:12 | Possession | 23:48 |
- Q4 4:48USUTerrell Vaughn 2 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (McCae Hillstead Pass to Jalen Royals for Two-Point Conversion)45–22
- Q4 9:18GASTFreddie Brock 5 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)45–14
- Q3 6:02GASTCadarrius Thompson 37 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)38–14
- Q2 1:17GASTCadarrius Thompson 23 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)31–14
- Q2 7:30GASTLiam Rickman 31 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q1 0:15GASTTailique Williams 27 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)21–14
- Q1 3:41USUDavon Booth 65 Yd Run (Elliott Nimrod Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:57GASTDarren Grainger 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:15USUJalen Royals 35 Yd pass from Levi Williams (Elliott Nimrod Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:36GASTDarren Grainger 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1321, GAST Elo 1323 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects USU +0.1 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #111 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| GAST | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0 (#72) | CORE overall | -9.8 (#99) |
| +0 / +2 | offense / defense | -1 / +9 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →