Georgia Southern vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 2:52OHIORickey Hunt 9 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–41
- Q4 12:27GASOJjay Mcafee 15 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)21–34
- Q3 1:13GASODerwin Burgess Jr. 65 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)14–34
- Q3 2:04OHIORickey Hunt 40 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–34
- Q3 7:54GASODavid Mbadinga 3 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)7–27
- Q3 11:46OHIORickey Hunt 6 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–27
- Q2 0:00OHIOGianni Spetic 26 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 3:16OHIORickey Hunt 18 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–17
- Q2 12:22OHIORickey Hunt 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:27OHIOGianni Spetic 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDavis Brin 32/42, 350 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushDavid Mbadinga 4 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDerwin Burgess Jr. 6 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- PassParker Navarro 11/16, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRickey Hunt Jr. 17 CAR, 115 YDS, 4 TD
- RecSam Wiglusz 5 REC, 64 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Ohio?
Georgia Southern 21, Ohio 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| GASO | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 352 |
| 350 | Passing yards | 120 |
| 33 | Rushing yards | 232 |
| 16 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 10-15 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 32/42 | Comp/Att | 11/16 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 26:40 | Possession | 33:20 |
- Q4 2:52OHIORickey Hunt 9 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–41
- Q4 12:27GASOJjay Mcafee 15 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)21–34
- Q3 1:13GASODerwin Burgess Jr. 65 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Michael Lantz Kick)14–34
- Q3 2:04OHIORickey Hunt 40 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–34
- Q3 7:54GASODavid Mbadinga 3 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)7–27
- Q3 11:46OHIORickey Hunt 6 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–27
- Q2 0:00OHIOGianni Spetic 26 Yd Field Goal 0–20
- Q2 3:16OHIORickey Hunt 18 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–17
- Q2 12:22OHIORickey Hunt 2 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:27OHIOGianni Spetic 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1491, GASO Elo 1368 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects OHIO -4.9 (64% to win) — 5.4 points clear of OHIO's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #115 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| GASO | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#97) | CORE overall | +1.0 (#57) |
| -0 / +9 | offense / defense | -5 / -6 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 2.45 | allowed / drive | 1.43 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +16 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →