Eastern Kentucky vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Eastern Kentucky
Cincinnati
▸Final
Nippert Stadium
EASTTeam statsCIN
302Total yards667
177Pass438
125Rush229
15First downs30
3-113rd down10-14
3Turnovers1
28:14Possession31:46
- Q4 4:37CINBarry Jackson Jr. 65 Yd pass from Brady Lichtenberg (Carter Brown Kick)13–66
- Q4 6:30EASTPatrick Nations 43 Yd Field Goal 13–59
- Q4 13:39CINBrady Lichtenberg 4 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)10–59
- Q3 2:42CINAaron Turner 6 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)10–52
- Q3 8:12EASTPatrick Nations 42 Yd Field Goal 10–45
- Q3 13:21CINCarter Brown 46 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q2 0:49CINBraden Smith 48 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)7–42
- Q2 5:08EASTHunter Brown 17 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)7–35
- Q2 7:17CINEmory Jones 12 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–35
- Q2 11:47CINPayten Singletary 1 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–28
- Q1 1:41CINEmory Jones 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:52CINDee Wiggins 39 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:45CINXzavier Henderson 49 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
CIN −21.5
Against the number
CIN covered
line CIN −21.5
What the numbers say
- CIN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and EAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 4.9
Kickoff148 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
CIN (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 100%
Closing line
CIN −21.5
Closing total
58.0
Model line
—
Actual result
EAST 13 – 66 CIN
Eastern Kentucky
- PassParker McKinney 13/24, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJoshua Carter 7 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecJaden Smith 5 REC, 81 YDS
Cincinnati
- PassEmory Jones 19/23, 345 YDS, 5 TD
- RushCorey Kiner 13 CAR, 105 YDS
- RecXzavier Henderson 7 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD
27.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
131
Points / snap
0.60
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 168 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
CIN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Kentucky vs. Cincinnati?
Eastern Kentucky 13, Cincinnati 66.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
EAST
CIN
42%
Success rate
58%
0.19
EPA / pass
1.45
0.21
EPA / rush
0.32
44%
Early-down success
55%
38%
Pass success
67%
47%
Rush success
52%
14%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
13%
10%
Stuffed rush rate
0%
49%
Pass rate
42%
4.9
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.3
EAST
4.9 yards to go on 3rd down
59 scrimmage snaps
CIN
7.3 yards to go on 3rd down
72 scrimmage snaps
| EAST | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 302 | Total yards | 667 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 438 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 229 |
| 15 | First downs | 30 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 10-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 13/25 | Comp/Att | 23/27 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 16.2 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-42 | Penalties | 7-55 |
| 28:14 | Possession | 31:46 |
EAST
6/7 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
CIN
3/3 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q1 5:27 EAST punt on 4th & 1 at EAST 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishEAST 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 10/12 scoring drives
CINTD7 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q1
EASTPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 23Q1
CINTD5 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1
EASTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
CINTD9 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
EASTINT8 pl, 42 yds· own 27Q1
CINTD4 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2
EASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 18Q2
CINTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
EASTTD4 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2
CINTD10 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q2
EASTEND2 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q2
EASTFUM2 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3
CINFG4 pl, -9 yds· opp 20Q3
EASTDOWNS7 pl, 48 yds· own 27Q3
CINFUM1 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q3
EASTFG4 pl, -7 yds· opp 19Q3
CINTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
EASTINT5 pl, 18 yds· own 10Q3
CINTD6 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q3
EASTFG13 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q4
CINTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
EASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4
CINPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 40Q4
EASTEND1 pl, 1 yds· own 32Q4
- Q4 4:37CINBarry Jackson Jr. 65 Yd pass from Brady Lichtenberg (Carter Brown Kick)13–66
- Q4 6:30EASTPatrick Nations 43 Yd Field Goal 13–59
- Q4 13:39CINBrady Lichtenberg 4 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)10–59
- Q3 2:42CINAaron Turner 6 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)10–52
- Q3 8:12EASTPatrick Nations 42 Yd Field Goal 10–45
- Q3 13:21CINCarter Brown 46 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q2 0:49CINBraden Smith 48 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)7–42
- Q2 5:08EASTHunter Brown 17 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)7–35
- Q2 7:17CINEmory Jones 12 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–35
- Q2 11:47CINPayten Singletary 1 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–28
- Q1 1:41CINEmory Jones 1 Yd Run (Carter Brown Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:52CINDee Wiggins 39 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:45CINXzavier Henderson 49 Yd pass from Emory Jones (Carter Brown Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →