Ball State vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsUGA
- Q4 9:05BALLJackson Courville 27 Yd Field Goal 3–45
- Q3 0:46UGARoderick Robinson II 12 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–45
- Q3 6:27UGACash Jones 27 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:37UGAKendall Milton 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:49UGAPeyton Woodring 35 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 8:45UGADillon Bell 21 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:16UGAMarcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 7 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–14
- Q2 14:32UGAMekhi Mews 69 Yd Punt Return (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BALL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UGA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassLayne Hatcher 10/16, 82 YDS
- RushCharlie Spegal 4 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecAhmad Edwards 4 REC, 47 YDS
- PassCarson Beck 23/30, 283 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRod Robinson II 6 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- RecArian Smith 2 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 101 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Georgia?
Ball State 3, Georgia 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| BALL | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Total yards | 386 |
| 147 | Passing yards | 287 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 99 |
| 13 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 18/37 | Comp/Att | 24/33 |
| 4.0 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-27 | Penalties | 3-40 |
| 31:28 | Possession | 28:32 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:41 BALL punt on 4th & 11 at UGA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:05BALLJackson Courville 27 Yd Field Goal 3–45
- Q3 0:46UGARoderick Robinson II 12 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–45
- Q3 6:27UGACash Jones 27 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:37UGAKendall Milton 1 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:49UGAPeyton Woodring 35 Yd Field Goal 0–24
- Q2 8:45UGADillon Bell 21 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–21
- Q2 10:16UGAMarcus Rosemy-Jacksaint 7 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–14
- Q2 14:32UGAMekhi Mews 69 Yd Punt Return (Peyton Woodring Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2033, BALL Elo 1305 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -31.5 (97% to win) — 10.5 points clear of BALL's market line of -42. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BALL | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| -13.9 (#105) | CORE overall | +33.9 (#4) |
| -10 / +4 | offense / defense | +23 / -11 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 3.90 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 1.53 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →