Weber State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Weber State1-0
▸
Utah State1-1
Final
Maverik Stadium
WEBETeam statsUSU
401Total yards283
202Pass157
199Rush126
22First downs18
10-193rd down2-15
3Turnovers4
35:54Possession24:06
- Q4 6:42WEBETy MacPherson 18 Yd pass from Bronson Barron (Kyle Thompson Kick)35–7
- Q3 2:43WEBEDesmond Williams 33 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Thompson Kick)28–7
- Q3 3:18WEBETy MacPherson 9 Yd pass from Bronson Barron (Jack Burgess Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q1 3:02WEBEKyle Thompson 20 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 5:04WEBEJosh Davis 17 Yd Run (Kyle Thompson Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:53USUTerrell Vaughn 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Connor Coles Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:09WEBEKyle Thompson 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
USU −6.5
Against the number
WEBE covered
line USU −6.5
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
USU (top)WEBE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USU 0%
Closing line
USU −6.5
Closing total
59.5
Model line
—
Actual result
WEBE 35 – 7 USU
consensus, liveUSU −6.5total 59.5
Weber State
- PassBronson Barron 11/22, 202 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJosh Davis 18 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTy MacPherson 3 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
Utah State
- PassLogan Bonner 12/31, 120 YDS, 3 INT
- RushCalvin Tyler Jr. 18 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecJustin McGriff 3 REC, 42 YDS
21.5sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
156
Points / snap
0.27
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWEBE up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
WEBE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Weber State vs. Utah State?
Weber State 35, Utah State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
WEBE
USU
36%
Success rate
33%
0.30
EPA / pass
-0.21
0.05
EPA / rush
-0.14
31%
Early-down success
37%
40%
Pass success
30%
33%
Rush success
35%
11%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
8%
33%
Stuffed rush rate
24%
33%
Pass rate
57%
7.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.2
WEBE
7.1 yards to go on 3rd down
76 scrimmage snaps
USU
7.2 yards to go on 3rd down
80 scrimmage snaps
| WEBE | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 283 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 157 |
| 199 | Rushing yards | 126 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 2-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 11/22 | Comp/Att | 16/40 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-56 | Penalties | 11-101 |
| 35:54 | Possession | 24:06 |
WEBE
6/7 with the model
−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
USU
8/11 with the model
−2.7 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 9:14 USU go for it on 4th & 17 at USU 33. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.27 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishWEBE 5/15 scoring drives← own end zone →USU 0/14 scoring drives
USUPUNT4 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q1
WEBEINT8 pl, 63 yds· own 10Q1
USUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 8Q1
WEBEFG8 pl, 42 yds· own 43Q1
WEBETD2 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q1
USUINT4 pl, 16 yds· own 12Q1
WEBEFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 8Q1
USUPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 10Q1
USUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 35Q2
WEBEPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 6Q2
USUPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 32Q2
WEBEMISS6 pl, 54 yds· own 17Q2
USUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 29Q2
WEBEINT9 pl, 36 yds· own 27Q2
USUINT11 pl, 44 yds· opp 47Q2
WEBEEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 6Q2
WEBEINT3 pl, 0 yds· own 26Q3
USUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 37Q3
WEBETD18 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q3
USUINT2 pl, 6 yds· own 18Q3
USUDOWNS13 pl, 61 yds· own 16Q3
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 23Q4
USUDOWNS4 pl, -7 yds· own 40Q4
WEBETD5 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q4
USUINT2 pl, -7 yds· own 20Q4
WEBEPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 40Q4
USUDOWNS14 pl, 72 yds· own 13Q4
WEBEEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 15Q4
- Q4 6:42WEBETy MacPherson 18 Yd pass from Bronson Barron (Kyle Thompson Kick)35–7
- Q3 2:43WEBEDesmond Williams 33 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Thompson Kick)28–7
- Q3 3:18WEBETy MacPherson 9 Yd pass from Bronson Barron (Jack Burgess Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–7
- Q1 3:02WEBEKyle Thompson 20 Yd Field Goal 13–7
- Q1 5:04WEBEJosh Davis 17 Yd Run (Kyle Thompson Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:53USUTerrell Vaughn 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Connor Coles Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:09WEBEKyle Thompson 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWeber State were +6.5 — a 34% shot
#11 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #70 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →