Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsUNC
- Q4 11:08GTHassan Hall 6 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)21–17
- Q3 7:31GTTaisun Phommachanh 4 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:48GTDontae Smith 2 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:13UNCElijah Green 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)0–17
- Q2 10:51UNCNoah Burnette 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:56UNCElijah Green 80 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 5.8
- UNC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassZach Gibson 13/18, 174 YDS
- RushHassan Hall 14 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Rutherford 6 REC, 68 YDS
- PassDrake Maye 16/30, 202 YDS, 1 INT
- RushElijah Green 10 CAR, 92 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBryson Nesbit 4 REC, 85 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNC up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:08GT +39%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q4 4:10GT +23%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the GTech 21
- Q4 9:03UNC +17%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 21 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down
- Q4 10:21GT +16%
Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the GTech 42
- Q4 11:08UNC +15%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26
- Q4 4:10GT +13%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh Downs
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina?
Georgia Tech 21, North Carolina 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 365 |
| 187 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 19 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 15/23 | Comp/Att | 16/30 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 34:27 | Possession | 25:33 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:08 GT punt on 4th & 6 at UNC 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:08GTHassan Hall 6 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)21–17
- Q3 7:31GTTaisun Phommachanh 4 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:48GTDontae Smith 2 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)7–17
- Q2 3:13UNCElijah Green 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)0–17
- Q2 10:51UNCNoah Burnette 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:56UNCElijah Green 80 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1644, GT Elo 1206 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -19.9 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #7 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds · #15 of 62 in 2022 by biggest poll gap.
The 2022 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 34–22–3 · Georgia Tech has won 4 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| GT | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.7 (#87) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#57) |
| -10 / -4 | offense / defense | +13 / +10 |
| 1.22 | points / drive | 2.84 |
| 2.26 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →