Wisconsin vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WISTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 4:09IOWATyler Goodson 80 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)7–28
- Q3 1:23IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 53 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Keith Duncan Kick)7–21
- Q3 5:42WISNakia Watson 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)7–14
- Q3 8:49IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 19 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Spencer Petras Pass to Brandon Smith for Two-Point Conversion)0–14
- Q2 0:01IOWAKeith Duncan 45 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:12IOWAKeith Duncan 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- IOWA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassGraham Mertz 20/38, 169 YDS, 1 INT
- RushNakia Watson 13 CAR, 29 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJack Dunn 5 REC, 55 YDS
- PassSpencer Petras 14/25, 211 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTyler Goodson 11 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIhmir Smith-Marsette 7 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIOWA up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:23IOWA +20%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 53 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
- Q3 8:49IOWA +17%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 19 yds for a TD (Spencer Petras pass for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q3 5:42WIS +16%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
- Q2 0:01IOWA +9%
Keith Duncan 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 7:12IOWA +8%
Keith Duncan 30 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 5:42IOWA +6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 32
FAQ
What was the final score of Wisconsin vs. Iowa?
Wisconsin 7, Iowa 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IOWA) was correct.
| WIS | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 225 | Total yards | 338 |
| 169 | Passing yards | 211 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 127 |
| 11 | First downs | 13 |
| 4-18 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/38 | Comp/Att | 14/25 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 34:11 | Possession | 25:49 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 IOWA punt on 4th & 1 at WIS 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.98 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:09IOWATyler Goodson 80 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)7–28
- Q3 1:23IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 53 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Keith Duncan Kick)7–21
- Q3 5:42WISNakia Watson 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)7–14
- Q3 8:49IOWAIhmir Smith-Marsette 19 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Spencer Petras Pass to Brandon Smith for Two-Point Conversion)0–14
- Q2 0:01IOWAKeith Duncan 45 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 7:12IOWAKeith Duncan 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1908, WIS Elo 1912 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -2.2 (57% to win) — 3.7 points clear of IOWA's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #92 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Wisconsin leads 49–48–2 · Iowa has won 4 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| WIS | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.9 (#48) | CORE overall | +10.8 (#26) |
| -8 / -12 | offense / defense | -1 / -12 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 1.38 | allowed / drive | 1.08 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →