Tulsa vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsUCF
- Q4 1:30TLSAZack Long 34 Yd Field Goal 34–26
- Q4 12:56TLSAKeylon Stokes 13 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–26
- Q3 7:20TLSAT.K. Wilkerson 2 Yd Run (Zack Long PAT failed)25–26
- Q3 11:16UCFDaniel Obarski 26 Yd Field Goal 19–26
- Q3 14:49TLSASam Crawford Jr. 34 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Zack Long Kick)19–23
- Q2 0:53TLSAJosh Johnson 48 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Zack Long Kick)12–23
- Q2 1:39UCFCole Schneider 1 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)5–23
- Q2 11:41TLSAZack Long 20 Yd Field Goal 5–16
- Q1 2:16TLSATeam Safety 2–16
- Q1 6:58UCFOtis Anderson 49 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)0–16
- Q1 7:35UCFTeam Safety 0–9
- Q1 10:13UCFJacob Harris 12 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Daniel Obarski Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TLSA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.8
- UCF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassZach Smith 17/29, 273 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushT.K. Wilkerson 22 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeylon Stokes 6 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDillon Gabriel 28/51, 330 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushOtis Anderson 17 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaylon Robinson 3 REC, 111 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:56TLSA +43%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 1:30TLSA +37%
Zack Long 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 10:12TLSA +17%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr
- Q4 8:15UCF +17%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 5 yds to the UCF 6
- Q3 7:31TLSA +15%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Zack Long KICK) (Zack Long PAT MISSED)
- Q3 14:49TLSA +11%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Zack Long KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. UCF?
Tulsa 34, UCF 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TLSA | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 438 | Total yards | 455 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 330 |
| 165 | Rushing yards | 125 |
| 21 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/29 | Comp/Att | 28/51 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-95 | Penalties | 18-124 |
| 30:34 | Possession | 29:26 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:33 TLSA punt on 4th & 1 at TLSA 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:30TLSAZack Long 34 Yd Field Goal 34–26
- Q4 12:56TLSAKeylon Stokes 13 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–26
- Q3 7:20TLSAT.K. Wilkerson 2 Yd Run (Zack Long PAT failed)25–26
- Q3 11:16UCFDaniel Obarski 26 Yd Field Goal 19–26
- Q3 14:49TLSASam Crawford Jr. 34 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Zack Long Kick)19–23
- Q2 0:53TLSAJosh Johnson 48 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Zack Long Kick)12–23
- Q2 1:39UCFCole Schneider 1 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)5–23
- Q2 11:41TLSAZack Long 20 Yd Field Goal 5–16
- Q1 2:16TLSATeam Safety 2–16
- Q1 6:58UCFOtis Anderson 49 Yd Run (Daniel Obarski Kick)0–16
- Q1 7:35UCFTeam Safety 0–9
- Q1 10:13UCFJacob Harris 12 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Daniel Obarski Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1789, TLSA Elo 1410 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -17.6 (87% to win) — 2.9 points clear of TLSA's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #6 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #9 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Tulsa leads 9–3 · Tulsa has won 4 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.2 (#37) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#38) |
| -3 / -10 | offense / defense | +12 / +5 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 3.20 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →