New Mexico vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsUSU
- Q4 4:03USUAndrew Peasley 62 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)27–41
- Q4 7:08UNMBobby Cole 1 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)27–34
- Q3 2:50UNMAndrew Erickson 28 Yd pass from Bryson Carroll (Donovan Murphree Kick)20–34
- Q3 5:17USUKina Maile 16 Yd Fumble Return (Connor Coles Kick)13–34
- Q3 6:54USUCarson Terrell 25 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)13–27
- Q3 8:52USUSavon Scarver 26 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)13–20
- Q3 12:20USUJustin McGriff 36 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)13–13
- Q2 0:03UNMDonovan Murphree 31 Yd Field Goal 13–6
- Q2 8:10UNMBobby Cole 1 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)10–6
- Q2 13:54USUConnor Coles 44 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 0:39UNMDonovan Murphree 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:54USUConnor Coles 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassTrae Hall 11/21, 63 YDS
- RushTrae Hall 13 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecAndrew Erickson 5 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAndrew Peasley 14/21, 239 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAndrew Peasley 11 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJustin McGriff 4 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:20USU +24%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 36 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q3 8:52USU +23%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Savon Scarver for 26 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q2 8:10UNM +22%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
- Q3 6:54USU +18%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Carson Terrell for 25 yds for a TD (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q4 7:08UNM +11%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
- Q2 0:03UNM +10%
Donovan Murphree 31 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Utah State?
New Mexico 27, Utah State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USU) was correct.
| UNM | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 348 | Total yards | 452 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 243 |
| 196 | Rushing yards | 209 |
| 25 | First downs | 22 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/32 | Comp/Att | 15/22 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 31:05 | Possession | 28:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:14 USU punt on 4th & 4 at USU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:03USUAndrew Peasley 62 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)27–41
- Q4 7:08UNMBobby Cole 1 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)27–34
- Q3 2:50UNMAndrew Erickson 28 Yd pass from Bryson Carroll (Donovan Murphree Kick)20–34
- Q3 5:17USUKina Maile 16 Yd Fumble Return (Connor Coles Kick)13–34
- Q3 6:54USUCarson Terrell 25 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)13–27
- Q3 8:52USUSavon Scarver 26 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)13–20
- Q3 12:20USUJustin McGriff 36 Yd pass from Andrew Peasley (Connor Coles Kick)13–13
- Q2 0:03UNMDonovan Murphree 31 Yd Field Goal 13–6
- Q2 8:10UNMBobby Cole 1 Yd Run (Donovan Murphree Kick)10–6
- Q2 13:54USUConnor Coles 44 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 0:39UNMDonovan Murphree 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:54USUConnor Coles 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1236, UNM Elo 1184 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -4.5 (63% to win) — 10.5 points clear of USU's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #69 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Utah State leads 17–15 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| UNM | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.4 (#100) | CORE overall | -26.3 (#121) |
| -5 / +7 | offense / defense | -13 / +13 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 1.20 |
| 2.74 | allowed / drive | 3.32 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 38% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →