Liberty vs. Virginia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsVT
- Q4 0:01LIBAlex Barbir 51 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q4 0:52VTTre Turner 12 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)35–35
- Q4 1:41LIBPeytton Pickett 9 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)35–28
- Q4 5:46VTKaleb Smith 9 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Hendon Hooker Pass to Raheem Blackshear for Two-Point Conversion)28–28
- Q4 10:29LIBJohnny Huntley 5 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Alex Barbir Kick)28–20
- Q3 6:26LIBMalik Willis 19 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)21–20
- Q2 0:01VTBrian Johnson 18 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 4:36VTHendon Hooker 12 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)14–17
- Q2 8:48VTNick Gallo 3 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)14–10
- Q2 12:11LIBJerome Jackson 2 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Alex Barbir Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:40VTBrian Johnson 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:46LIBCJ Yarbrough 32 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Alex Barbir Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMalik Willis 20/30, 217 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMalik Willis 19 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCJ Yarbrough 5 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHendon Hooker 20/27, 217 YDS, 3 TD
- RushHendon Hooker 20 CAR, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre Turner 6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:52VT +80%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 12 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
- Q4 0:08LIB +77%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny Huntley, broken up by Amare Barno
- Q4 5:46VT +55%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 9 yds for a TD (Hendon Hooker pass to Raheem Blackshear for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 1:41LIB +44%
Peytton Pickett run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
- Q4 10:29LIB +33%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 5 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
- Q3 6:26LIB +26%
Malik Willis run for 19 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Virginia Tech?
Liberty 38, Virginia Tech 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LIB | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 466 | Total yards | 418 |
| 217 | Passing yards | 217 |
| 249 | Rushing yards | 201 |
| 29 | First downs | 24 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 20/27 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-50 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 37:27 | Possession | 22:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:57 VT field goal on 4th & 4 at LIB 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:01LIBAlex Barbir 51 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q4 0:52VTTre Turner 12 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)35–35
- Q4 1:41LIBPeytton Pickett 9 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)35–28
- Q4 5:46VTKaleb Smith 9 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Hendon Hooker Pass to Raheem Blackshear for Two-Point Conversion)28–28
- Q4 10:29LIBJohnny Huntley 5 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Alex Barbir Kick)28–20
- Q3 6:26LIBMalik Willis 19 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)21–20
- Q2 0:01VTBrian Johnson 18 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 4:36VTHendon Hooker 12 Yd Run (Brian Johnson Kick)14–17
- Q2 8:48VTNick Gallo 3 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Brian Johnson Kick)14–10
- Q2 12:11LIBJerome Jackson 2 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Alex Barbir Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:40VTBrian Johnson 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:46LIBCJ Yarbrough 32 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Alex Barbir Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VT Elo 1657, LIB Elo 1531 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VT -7.4 (70% to win) — 9.1 points clear of LIB's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #9 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| LIB | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.6 (#46) | CORE overall | +5.6 (#43) |
| +10 / +5 | offense / defense | +10 / +4 |
| 3.17 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.57 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →