Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsUSM
- Q4 1:52USMAndrew Stein 22 Yd Field Goal 28–10
- Q4 9:34WKUDeAngelo Malone 5 Yd Fumble Return (Cory Munson Kick)28–7
- Q2 5:02WKUQuin Jernighan 21 Yd pass from Ty Storey (Cory Munson Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:07WKUJahcour Pearson 64 Yd pass from Ty Storey (Cory Munson Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:31USMTim Jones 68 Yd pass from Jack Abraham (Andrew Stein Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:03WKUJacquez Sloan 21 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassTy Storey 20/30, 225 YDS, 2 TD
- RushGaej Walker 20 CAR, 84 YDS
- RecJahcour Pearson 7 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJack Abraham 16/31, 223 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeMichael Harris 11 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecTim Jones 7 REC, 159 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:07WKU +23%
Ty Storey pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 64 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q1 4:31USM +20%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 68 yds for a TD, (Andrew Stein KICK)
- Q2 5:02WKU +19%
Ty Storey pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 21 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q1 9:03WKU +19%
Jacquez Sloan run for 21 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q3 6:40WKU +6%
John Haggerty punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ty Williams at the SoMis 9
- Q2 0:11WKU +6%
Gaej Walker run for 10 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss?
Western Kentucky 28, Southern Miss 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Total yards | 388 |
| 231 | Passing yards | 290 |
| 134 | Rushing yards | 98 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 21/31 | Comp/Att | 20/39 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-64 | Penalties | 4-41 |
| 29:41 | Possession | 30:19 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:56 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:52USMAndrew Stein 22 Yd Field Goal 28–10
- Q4 9:34WKUDeAngelo Malone 5 Yd Fumble Return (Cory Munson Kick)28–7
- Q2 5:02WKUQuin Jernighan 21 Yd pass from Ty Storey (Cory Munson Kick)21–7
- Q2 12:07WKUJahcour Pearson 64 Yd pass from Ty Storey (Cory Munson Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:31USMTim Jones 68 Yd pass from Jack Abraham (Andrew Stein Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:03WKUJacquez Sloan 21 Yd Run (Cory Munson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1548, WKU Elo 1472 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -5.4 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #86 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| WKU | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.3 (#48) | CORE overall | -3.1 (#69) |
| -5 / -8 | offense / defense | -4 / -1 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.98 |
| 1.56 | allowed / drive | 2.12 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →