Missouri vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsUK
- Q4 11:25UKLynn Bowden Jr. 33 Yd Run (Chance Poore Kick)7–29
- Q3 12:40MIZTyler Badie 74 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)7–22
- Q2 0:10UKLynn Bowden Jr. 10 Yd Run (Chance Poore Kick)0–22
- Q2 0:44UKChance Poore 43 Yd Field Goal 0–15
- Q2 6:03UKAsim Rose 20 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo PAT failed)0–12
- Q2 12:27UKKavosiey Smoke 1 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UK lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassKelly Bryant 10/19, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLarry Rountree III 15 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecTyler Badie 2 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLynn Bowden Jr. 3/7, 54 YDS
- RushLynn Bowden Jr. 21 CAR, 204 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBryce Oliver 1 REC, 44 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:03UK +20%
Asim Rose run for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo PAT MISSED)
- Q2 12:27UK +18%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo PAT MISSED)
- Q2 0:10UK +13%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)
- Q3 12:40MIZ +11%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Tyler Badie for 74 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
- Q2 0:44UK +10%
Chance Poore 43 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 0:49UK +8%
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 20
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Kentucky?
Missouri 7, Kentucky 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Total yards | 360 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 63 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 297 |
| 14 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/29 | Comp/Att | 4/8 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 6.2 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 4-48 |
| 26:41 | Possession | 33:19 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:41 UK punt on 4th & 1 at MIZ 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:25UKLynn Bowden Jr. 33 Yd Run (Chance Poore Kick)7–29
- Q3 12:40MIZTyler Badie 74 Yd pass from Kelly Bryant (Tucker McCann Kick)7–22
- Q2 0:10UKLynn Bowden Jr. 10 Yd Run (Chance Poore Kick)0–22
- Q2 0:44UKChance Poore 43 Yd Field Goal 0–15
- Q2 6:03UKAsim Rose 20 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo PAT failed)0–12
- Q2 12:27UKKavosiey Smoke 1 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1567, MIZ Elo 1814 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +7.5 (32% to win) — 2.0 points clear of UK's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #40 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Kentucky leads 9–5 · 50% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#37) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#56) |
| -4 / -10 | offense / defense | +0 / -1 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 1.53 | allowed / drive | 1.90 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →