UL Monroe vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULMTeam statsCCU
- Q4 0:31ULMDerrick Gore 46 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)45–20
- Q4 4:07ULMCaleb Evans 20 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)38–20
- Q3 3:45ULMCaleb Evans 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)31–20
- Q3 6:56CCUMarcus Outlow 6 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)24–20
- Q2 0:02CCUMassimo Biscardi 40 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q2 0:50ULMCraig Ford 20 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 7:38ULMMarcus Green 37 Yd pass from Caleb Evans (Craig Ford Kick)21–10
- Q2 9:10CCUMalcolm Williams 4 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:07CCUMassimo Biscardi 29 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 8:35ULMDerrick Gore 10 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:48ULMAustin Vaughn 4 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ULM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 3.9
- PassCaleb Evans 16/22, 224 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDerrick Gore 16 CAR, 147 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarcus Green 5 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryce Carpenter 9/19, 133 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMarcus Outlow 15 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalcolm Williams 4 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsULM up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:45ULM +30%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd for a TD (Craig Ford KICK)
- Q3 6:56CCU +24%
Marcus Outlow run for 6 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q2 7:38ULM +23%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Marcus Green for 37 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
- Q1 8:35ULM +19%
Derrick Gore run for 10 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
- Q2 9:10CCU +18%
Malcolm Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q1 12:48ULM +16%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Coastal Carolina?
UL Monroe 45, Coastal Carolina 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ULM | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 466 | Total yards | 439 |
| 224 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 242 | Rushing yards | 272 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-12 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/22 | Comp/Att | 12/23 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 8-71 |
| 24:31 | Possession | 35:29 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:50 ULM field goal on 4th & 3 at CCU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:31ULMDerrick Gore 46 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)45–20
- Q4 4:07ULMCaleb Evans 20 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)38–20
- Q3 3:45ULMCaleb Evans 1 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)31–20
- Q3 6:56CCUMarcus Outlow 6 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)24–20
- Q2 0:02CCUMassimo Biscardi 40 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q2 0:50ULMCraig Ford 20 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 7:38ULMMarcus Green 37 Yd pass from Caleb Evans (Craig Ford Kick)21–10
- Q2 9:10CCUMalcolm Williams 4 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:07CCUMassimo Biscardi 29 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 8:35ULMDerrick Gore 10 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:48ULMAustin Vaughn 4 Yd Run (Craig Ford Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1277, ULM Elo 1037 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -12 (79% to win) — 5.5 points clear of CCU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #66 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| ULM | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.2 (#78) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#110) |
| +3 / +5 | offense / defense | +1 / +17 |
| 1.99 | points / drive | 2.15 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 3.12 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →