Old Dominion vs. Rice: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsRICE
- Q4 7:05RICEJuma Otoviano 62 Yd Run (Jack Fox Kick)13–27
- Q3 0:42RICEJuma Otoviano 80 Yd Run (Jack Fox Kick)13–20
- Q3 5:43ODUTravis Fulgham 2 Yd pass from Blake LaRussa (Nick Rice Kick)13–13
- Q2 8:47RICEWiley Green 10 Yd Run (Jack Fox Kick)6–13
- Q2 13:02ODUNick Rice 26 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q1 1:44RICEGiovanni Gentosi 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–6
- Q1 5:58ODUNick Rice 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake LaRussa 33/54, 312 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushMatt Geiger 15 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecJonathan Duhart 7 REC, 95 YDS
- PassWiley Green 6/13, 96 YDS
- RushJuma Otoviano 27 CAR, 224 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJordan Myers 2 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:42RICE +30%
Juma Otoviano run for 80 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)
- Q3 5:43ODU +27%
Blake LaRussa pass complete to Travis Fulgham for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Rice KICK)
- Q4 7:05RICE +21%
Juma Otoviano run for 62 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)
- Q2 8:47RICE +21%
Wiley Green run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)
- Q1 1:44RICE +17%
Giovanni Gentosi run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q4 13:17RICE +11%
Juma Otoviano run for 8 yds to the Rice 30
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Rice?
Old Dominion 13, Rice 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ODU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ODU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| 389 | Total yards | 371 |
| 312 | Passing yards | 96 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 275 |
| 21 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 33/54 | Comp/Att | 6/14 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-34 | Penalties | 3-32 |
| 29:11 | Possession | 30:49 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:11 RICE punt on 4th & 1 at ODU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:05RICEJuma Otoviano 62 Yd Run (Jack Fox Kick)13–27
- Q3 0:42RICEJuma Otoviano 80 Yd Run (Jack Fox Kick)13–20
- Q3 5:43ODUTravis Fulgham 2 Yd pass from Blake LaRussa (Nick Rice Kick)13–13
- Q2 8:47RICEWiley Green 10 Yd Run (Jack Fox Kick)6–13
- Q2 13:02ODUNick Rice 26 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q1 1:44RICEGiovanni Gentosi 6 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)3–6
- Q1 5:58ODUNick Rice 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 986, ODU Elo 1130 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +3.4 (42% to win) — 4.6 points clear of RICE's market line of +8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #55 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| ODU | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.2 (#121) | CORE overall | -34.1 (#129) |
| -7 / +13 | offense / defense | -17 / +17 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 1.33 |
| 2.98 | allowed / drive | 2.99 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →