Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsKSU
- Q4 2:35KSUAlex Barnes 3 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)12–31
- Q4 9:41KSUAlex Barnes 8 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)12–24
- Q4 14:23OKSTTaylor Cornelius 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q3 2:41KSUAlex Barnes 1 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)6–17
- Q3 8:44KSUAlex Barnes 9 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)6–10
- Q2 7:23OKSTMatt Ammendola 22 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 13:32KSUAndrew Hicks 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:10OKSTMatt Ammendola 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTaylor Cornelius 17/35, 184 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTaylor Cornelius 11 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTylan Wallace 5 REC, 90 YDS
- PassSkylar Thompson 11/22, 130 YDS
- RushAlex Barnes 34 CAR, 181 YDS, 4 TD
- RecAlex Barnes 3 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:44KSU +28%
Alex Barnes run for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK)
- Q3 2:41KSU +27%
Alex Barnes run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK)
- Q4 9:41KSU +25%
Alex Barnes run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Hicks KICK)
- Q2 13:32KSU +10%
Andrew Hicks 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:23OKST +10%
Skylar Thompson sacked by Cole Walterscheid for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 21
- Q3 6:15KSU +9%
Dalvin Warmack run for 4 yds to the KanSt 42
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State?
Oklahoma State 12, Kansas State 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OKST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 311 | Total yards | 421 |
| 184 | Passing yards | 130 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 291 |
| 15 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/35 | Comp/Att | 11/22 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 22:08 | Possession | 37:52 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:28 KSU go for it on 4th & 4 at OKST 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:35KSUAlex Barnes 3 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)12–31
- Q4 9:41KSUAlex Barnes 8 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)12–24
- Q4 14:23OKSTTaylor Cornelius 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q3 2:41KSUAlex Barnes 1 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)6–17
- Q3 8:44KSUAlex Barnes 9 Yd Run (Andrew Hicks Kick)6–10
- Q2 7:23OKSTMatt Ammendola 22 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 13:32KSUAndrew Hicks 31 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:10OKSTMatt Ammendola 48 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1535, OKST Elo 1760 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU +6.6 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #49 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 43–26 · Kansas State has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| OKST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.0 (#43) | CORE overall | -4.4 (#92) |
| +7 / +2 | offense / defense | -2 / +2 |
| 2.82 | points / drive | 2.02 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 2.28 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →