Minnesota vs. Illinois: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsILL
- Q4 1:46MINNRashod Bateman 86 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Emmit Carpenter Kick)31–55
- Q4 2:59ILLAJ Bush Jr. 12 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)24–55
- Q4 9:31MINNRashod Bateman 61 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Emmit Carpenter Kick)24–48
- Q4 10:35ILLChase McLaughlin 48 Yd Field Goal 17–48
- Q3 4:07ILLReggie Corbin 77 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–45
- Q3 9:14ILLDaniel Barker 30 Yd pass from AJ Bush Jr. (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–38
- Q3 10:12ILLAJ Bush Jr. 3 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:06MINNEmmit Carpenter 28 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 7:48ILLRicky Smalling 67 Yd pass from AJ Bush Jr. (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–24
- Q2 9:14MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:51ILLChase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 8:01ILLDre Brown 72 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:31MINNMohamed Ibrahim 4 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:21ILLReggie Corbin 72 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTanner Morgan 14/27, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMohamed Ibrahim 18 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRashod Bateman 7 REC, 175 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAJ Bush Jr. 18/25, 216 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushReggie Corbin 13 CAR, 213 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRicky Smalling 4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:48ILL +22%
AJ Bush Jr. pass complete to Ricky Smalling for 67 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
- Q3 10:12ILL +22%
AJ Bush Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
- Q2 9:14MINN +19%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
- Q1 8:01ILL +18%
Dre Brown run for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
- Q1 14:21ILL +17%
Reggie Corbin run for 72 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
- Q1 8:31MINN +16%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Illinois?
Minnesota 31, Illinois 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MINN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MINN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 438 | Total yards | 646 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 430 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 12.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 32:50 | Possession | 27:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:48 MINN punt on 4th & 1 at MINN 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:46MINNRashod Bateman 86 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Emmit Carpenter Kick)31–55
- Q4 2:59ILLAJ Bush Jr. 12 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)24–55
- Q4 9:31MINNRashod Bateman 61 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Emmit Carpenter Kick)24–48
- Q4 10:35ILLChase McLaughlin 48 Yd Field Goal 17–48
- Q3 4:07ILLReggie Corbin 77 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–45
- Q3 9:14ILLDaniel Barker 30 Yd pass from AJ Bush Jr. (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–38
- Q3 10:12ILLAJ Bush Jr. 3 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:06MINNEmmit Carpenter 28 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 7:48ILLRicky Smalling 67 Yd pass from AJ Bush Jr. (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–24
- Q2 9:14MINNMohamed Ibrahim 1 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:51ILLChase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q1 8:01ILLDre Brown 72 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:31MINNMohamed Ibrahim 4 Yd Run (Emmit Carpenter Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:21ILLReggie Corbin 72 Yd Run (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ILL Elo 1182, MINN Elo 1433 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ILL +7.6 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #51 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Minnesota leads 41–33–3 · 38% have been one-possession games
| MINN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.3 (#66) | CORE overall | -15.5 (#109) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | +2 / +18 |
| 2.27 | points / drive | 2.01 |
| 2.15 | allowed / drive | 3.16 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →