North Texas vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsARMY
- Q4 5:58UNTJeffrey Wilson 1 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)35–18
- Q3 1:14ARMYAhmad Bradshaw 6 Yd Run (Ahmad Bradshaw Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–18
- Q3 7:33UNTJeffrey Wilson 1 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)28–10
- Q3 13:28UNTJeffrey Wilson 41 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)21–10
- Q2 13:28ARMYBlake Wilson 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 4:57UNTEric Jenkins 34 Yd Interception Return (Trevor Moore Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:38UNTTerian Goree 34 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:38ARMYDarnell Woolfolk 9 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 6.1
- UNT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassMason Fine 9/17, 118 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeff Wilson Jr. 15 CAR, 160 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTerian Goree 2 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAhmad Bradshaw 7/21, 94 YDS, 4 INT
- RushAhmad Bradshaw 24 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDalton Mendenhall 1 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:33UNT +30%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q3 13:28UNT +26%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q4 15:00UNT +19%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the Army 27
- Q3 1:14ARMY +16%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 6 yds for a TD, (A. Bradshaw Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q1 4:57UNT +16%
Ahmad Bradshaw pass intercepted for a TD Eric Jenkins return for 34 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q4 9:34UNT +15%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 56 yds to the ARMY 21 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (John Voit) to the Army 10 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Army?
North Texas 35, Army 18.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 320 | Total yards | 403 |
| 118 | Passing yards | 94 |
| 202 | Rushing yards | 302 |
| 15 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 5-7 |
| 9/17 | Comp/Att | 7/21 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 10-91 | Penalties | 9-79 |
| 22:34 | Possession | 37:26 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:39 UNT punt on 4th & 3 at UNT 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:58UNTJeffrey Wilson 1 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)35–18
- Q3 1:14ARMYAhmad Bradshaw 6 Yd Run (Ahmad Bradshaw Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–18
- Q3 7:33UNTJeffrey Wilson 1 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)28–10
- Q3 13:28UNTJeffrey Wilson 41 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)21–10
- Q2 13:28ARMYBlake Wilson 39 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 4:57UNTEric Jenkins 34 Yd Interception Return (Trevor Moore Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:38UNTTerian Goree 34 Yd pass from Mason Fine (Trevor Moore Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:38ARMYDarnell Woolfolk 9 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1515, UNT Elo 1210 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -14.6 (83% to win) — 2.9 points clear of UNT's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #17 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Army leads 6–3 · 44% have been one-possession games
| UNT | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.0 (#92) | CORE overall | -4.4 (#86) |
| -9 / -2 | offense / defense | -1 / +4 |
| 1.83 | points / drive | 2.53 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -32 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →