Louisiana Tech vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 0:57LTJarred Craft 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–39
- Q4 2:19USMNick Mullens 1 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)17–39
- Q4 7:48USMStephen Brauchle 25 Yd Field Goal 17–32
- Q3 1:19USMKorey Robertson 6 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–29
- Q2 0:36LTJonathan Barnes 31 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q2 3:14USMD.J. Thompson 8 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle PAT blocked)14–23
- Q2 9:40USMD.J. Thompson 21 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:12LTXavier Woods 30 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Barnes Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:28USMStephen Brauchle 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 6:08LTJarred Craft 5 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:41USMKeon Howard 9 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 5.9
- LT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassRyan Higgins 22/39, 246 YDS, 3 INT
- RushJarred Craft 9 CAR, 17 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrent Taylor 10 REC, 119 YDS
- PassNick Mullens 29/33, 342 YDS, 3 TD
- RushIto Smith 24 CAR, 127 YDS
- RecD.J. Thompson 12 REC, 135 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:19USM +29%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q2 3:14USM +22%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle PAT BLOCKED)
- Q2 9:40USM +18%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 21 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
- Q1 10:41USM +16%
Keon Howard run for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Brauchle KICK)
- Q2 14:12LT +15%
Nick Mullens sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards Nick Mullens fumbled, recovered by LaTch Secdrick Cooper, return for 0 yards, return for 10 yds, return fo…
- Q1 6:08LT +14%
Jarred Craft run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Southern Miss?
Louisiana Tech 24, Southern Miss 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LT | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 254 | Total yards | 426 |
| 246 | Passing yards | 342 |
| 8 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 16 | First downs | 26 |
| 2-8 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 22/39 | Comp/Att | 29/33 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 10.4 |
| 0.5 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 9-85 |
| 21:38 | Possession | 38:22 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:40 LT punt on 4th & 1 at LT 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:57LTJarred Craft 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)24–39
- Q4 2:19USMNick Mullens 1 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)17–39
- Q4 7:48USMStephen Brauchle 25 Yd Field Goal 17–32
- Q3 1:19USMKorey Robertson 6 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–29
- Q2 0:36LTJonathan Barnes 31 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q2 3:14USMD.J. Thompson 8 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle PAT blocked)14–23
- Q2 9:40USMD.J. Thompson 21 Yd pass from Nick Mullens (Stephen Brauchle Kick)14–17
- Q2 14:12LTXavier Woods 30 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Barnes Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:28USMStephen Brauchle 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 6:08LTJarred Craft 5 Yd Run (Jonathan Barnes Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:41USMKeon Howard 9 Yd Run (Stephen Brauchle Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1327, LT Elo 1728 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +13.6 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #37 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Southern Miss leads 20–13 · 39% have been one-possession games
| LT | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.0 (#35) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#65) |
| +16 / +8 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 3.59 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 2.17 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →