UTSA vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsUNT
- Q4 7:51UNTDaMarcus Smith 1 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)23–30
- Q4 9:30UNTChad Davis Defensive PAT Conversion 23–23
- Q4 9:30UTSAHalen Steward 1 Yd pass from Dalton Sturm (Daniel Portillo PAT blocked)23–21
- Q4 13:55UNTWilly Ivery 5 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)17–21
- Q3 1:34UTSATyrell Clay 4 Yd Run (Daniel Portillo Kick)17–14
- Q3 5:58UNTKishawn McClain 45 Yd Fumble Return (Trevor Moore Kick)10–14
- Q2 1:00UTSADaniel Portillo 24 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:18UNTJeffrey Wilson 6 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:54UTSAJarveon Williams 3 Yd Run (Daniel Portillo Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDalton Sturm 27/41, 245 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDalton Sturm 21 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecKerry Thomas Jr. 9 REC, 75 YDS
- RushJeff Wilson Jr. 22 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCarlos Harris 6 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:51UNT +35%
DaMarcus Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q4 13:55UNT +34%
Willy Ivery run for 5 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q4 9:30UTSA +34%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Halen Steward for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED), (Daniel Portillo PAT BLOCKED)
- Q3 1:34UTSA +31%
Tyrell Clay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Portillo KICK)
- Q3 5:58UNT +28%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain Jalen Rhodes fumbled, recovered by NoTex Kishawn McClain, return for 45 yds, (Trevor Moore KICK)
- Q2 11:18UNT +20%
Jeffrey Wilson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Trevor Moore KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. North Texas?
UTSA 23, North Texas 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTSA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 477 | Total yards | 371 |
| 245 | Passing yards | 104 |
| 232 | Rushing yards | 267 |
| 31 | First downs | 20 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/41 | Comp/Att | 11/22 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-72 | Penalties | 8-80 |
| 37:36 | Possession | 22:24 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:24 UNT punt on 4th & 1 at UNT 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:51UNTDaMarcus Smith 1 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)23–30
- Q4 9:30UNTChad Davis Defensive PAT Conversion 23–23
- Q4 9:30UTSAHalen Steward 1 Yd pass from Dalton Sturm (Daniel Portillo PAT blocked)23–21
- Q4 13:55UNTWilly Ivery 5 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)17–21
- Q3 1:34UTSATyrell Clay 4 Yd Run (Daniel Portillo Kick)17–14
- Q3 5:58UNTKishawn McClain 45 Yd Fumble Return (Trevor Moore Kick)10–14
- Q2 1:00UTSADaniel Portillo 24 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:18UNTJeffrey Wilson 6 Yd Run (Trevor Moore Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:54UTSAJarveon Williams 3 Yd Run (Daniel Portillo Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1085, UTSA Elo 1191 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT +1.8 (46% to win) — 6.7 points clear of UNT's market line of +8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #29 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →UTSA leads 8–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| UTSA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#107) | CORE overall | -25.1 (#120) |
| -12 / +5 | offense / defense | -15 / +10 |
| 1.77 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 2.32 | allowed / drive | 3.15 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →