South Alabama vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsSDSU
- OT 0:00USAXavier Johnson 2 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)34–27
- Q4 0:00USAAleem Sunanon 46 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 2:05SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 8 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)24–27
- Q4 5:51USAGerald Everett 57 Yd pass from Cody Clements (Aleem Sunanon Kick)24–20
- Q3 4:24SDSUDonny Hageman 54 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 14:21USAXavier Johnson 74 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:12USAJosh Magee 46 Yd pass from Cody Clements (Aleem Sunanon Kick)10–17
- Q2 7:28SDSUMikah Holder 30 Yd pass from Maxwell Smith (Donny Hageman Kick)3–17
- Q2 10:18SDSUMaxwell Smith 7 Yd pass from Lloyd Mills (Donny Hageman Kick)3–10
- Q2 12:59SDSUDonny Hageman 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:51USAAleem Sunanon 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassCody Clements 18/35, 270 YDS, 2 TD
- RushXavier Johnson 19 CAR, 142 YDS, 2 TD
- RecGerald Everett 8 REC, 164 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMaxwell Smith 12/26, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDonnel Pumphrey 28 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonnel Pumphrey 5 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00USA +77%
Aleem Sunanon 46 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 5:51USA +66%
Cody Clements pass complete to Gerald Everett for 57 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
- Q4 2:05SDSU +59%
Donnel Pumphrey run for 8 yds for a TD, (Donny Hageman KICK)
- Q4 2:05SDSU +33%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40
- Q3 14:21USA +25%
Xavier Johnson run for 74 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
- OT 0:00USA +23%
Maxwell Smith pass incomplete to Daniel Brunskill
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. San Diego State?
South Alabama 34, San Diego State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USA | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 511 | Total yards | 305 |
| 270 | Passing yards | 165 |
| 241 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 23 | First downs | 14 |
| 9-20 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/36 | Comp/Att | 13/27 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-22 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 32:55 | Possession | 27:05 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:21 SDSU punt on 4th & 5 at USA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00USAXavier Johnson 2 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)34–27
- Q4 0:00USAAleem Sunanon 46 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 2:05SDSUDonnel Pumphrey 8 Yd Run (Donny Hageman Kick)24–27
- Q4 5:51USAGerald Everett 57 Yd pass from Cody Clements (Aleem Sunanon Kick)24–20
- Q3 4:24SDSUDonny Hageman 54 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q3 14:21USAXavier Johnson 74 Yd Run (Aleem Sunanon Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:12USAJosh Magee 46 Yd pass from Cody Clements (Aleem Sunanon Kick)10–17
- Q2 7:28SDSUMikah Holder 30 Yd pass from Maxwell Smith (Donny Hageman Kick)3–17
- Q2 10:18SDSUMaxwell Smith 7 Yd pass from Lloyd Mills (Donny Hageman Kick)3–10
- Q2 12:59SDSUDonny Hageman 40 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 6:51USAAleem Sunanon 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1421, USA Elo 1296 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -7.4 (70% to win) — 9.6 points clear of USA's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #12 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| USA | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.2 (#110) | CORE overall | +11.2 (#32) |
| -10 / +8 | offense / defense | +1 / -10 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 1.13 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →