Oklahoma vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsTEX
- Q4 8:00OUSamaje Perine 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)17–24
- Q4 13:52TEXCaleb Bluiett 2 Yd pass from Tyrone Swoopes (Nick Rose Kick)10–24
- Q3 5:16OUDimitri Flowers 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)10–17
- Q3 8:18TEXNick Rose 27 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 6:05OUAustin Seibert 21 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:37TEXTyrone Swoopes 3 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:52TEXMarcus Johnson 24 Yd pass from Jerrod Heard (Nick Rose Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TEX did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassBaker Mayfield 20/28, 211 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSamaje Perine 10 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSterling Shepard 6 REC, 95 YDS
- PassJerrod Heard 8/11, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RushD'Onta Foreman 9 CAR, 117 YDS
- RecMarcus Johnson 4 REC, 35 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:52TEX +37%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Caleb Bluiett for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
- Q3 5:16OU +24%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dimitri Flowers for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
- Q4 7:05TEX +23%
Jerrod Heard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 34
- Q4 8:00OU +22%
Samaje Perine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)
- Q1 5:37TEX +20%
Tyrone Swoopes 3 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)
- Q1 7:52TEX +17%
Jerrod Heard pass complete to Marcus Johnson for 24 yds for a TD, (Nick Rose KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. Texas?
Oklahoma 17, Texas 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 278 | Total yards | 368 |
| 211 | Passing yards | 55 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 313 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/28 | Comp/Att | 9/12 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 5-67 |
| 28:05 | Possession | 31:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:51 TEX punt on 4th & 5 at OU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 3.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:00OUSamaje Perine 1 Yd Run (Austin Seibert Kick)17–24
- Q4 13:52TEXCaleb Bluiett 2 Yd pass from Tyrone Swoopes (Nick Rose Kick)10–24
- Q3 5:16OUDimitri Flowers 2 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Austin Seibert Kick)10–17
- Q3 8:18TEXNick Rose 27 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 6:05OUAustin Seibert 21 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 5:37TEXTyrone Swoopes 3 Yd Run (Nick Rose Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:52TEXMarcus Johnson 24 Yd pass from Jerrod Heard (Nick Rose Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1434, OU Elo 1788 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TEX +14.2 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #19 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #9 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →Texas leads 62–51–5 · Texas has won 2 straight · 48% have been one-possession games
| OU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.2 (#3) | CORE overall | +1.0 (#67) |
| +13 / -14 | offense / defense | -3 / -4 |
| 3.15 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 1.51 | allowed / drive | 2.23 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -15 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →