Florida International vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsUCF
- Q4 12:52FIUYa'Keem Griner 3 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–14
- Q3 8:41FIUAlex Gardner 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–14
- Q2 10:07UCFJordan Akins 33 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Matthew Wright Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:16UCFJordan Akins 9 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Matthew Wright Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:10FIUAustin Taylor 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassAlex McGough 28/37, 260 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAlex Gardner 15 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecThomas Owens 10 REC, 78 YDS
- PassJustin Holman 23/34, 249 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDontravious Wilson 12 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecJordan Akins 9 REC, 104 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:25FIU +61%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 28
- Q4 12:52FIU +28%
Ya'Keem Griner 3 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- Q4 4:49FIU +27%
Alex McGough run for no gain to the FlaIn 26
- Q4 3:11UCF +25%
Justin Holman pass complete to Nick Patti for 6 yds to the FlaIn 42
- Q4 10:01FIU +17%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 35
- Q4 7:43UCF +15%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. UCF?
Florida International 15, UCF 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total yards | 295 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 249 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 46 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/37 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 29:57 | Possession | 30:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 FIU punt on 4th & 1 at FIU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:52FIUYa'Keem Griner 3 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)15–14
- Q3 8:41FIUAlex Gardner 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–14
- Q2 10:07UCFJordan Akins 33 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Matthew Wright Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:16UCFJordan Akins 9 Yd pass from Justin Holman (Matthew Wright Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:10FIUAustin Taylor 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1626, FIU Elo 1321 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF -14.6 (83% to win) — 2.1 points clear of UCF's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #10 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| FIU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.0 (#112) | CORE overall | -26.9 (#126) |
| -9 / +10 | offense / defense | -17 / +10 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 1.05 |
| 2.16 | allowed / drive | 3.12 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 39% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →