Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsUSA
- Q4 3:21GASOKevin Ellison 6 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)28–6
- Q3 7:37GASOMatt Breida 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)21–6
- Q2 3:52USAShavarez Smith 28 Yd pass from Brandon Bridge (Aleem Sunanon PAT failed)14–6
- Q2 10:04GASOAlfred Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)14–0
- Q1 0:00GASOMatt Breida 64 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassKevin Ellison 6/11, 85 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMatt Breida 21 CAR, 187 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBJ Johnson III 5 REC, 76 YDS
- PassBrandon Bridge 13/34, 149 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKendall Houston 7 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecShavarez Smith 4 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:00GASO +19%
Matt Breida run for 64 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
- Q2 10:04GASO +15%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
- Q3 7:37GASO +15%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
- Q2 3:52USA +13%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 28 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon MISSED)
- Q3 11:57GASO +5%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Kentrellis Showers
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama?
Georgia Southern 28, South Alabama 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GASO) was correct.
| GASO | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 420 | Total yards | 296 |
| 85 | Passing yards | 149 |
| 335 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 6/11 | Comp/Att | 13/34 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 31:20 | Possession | 28:40 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:52 GASO punt on 4th & 1 at GASO 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:21GASOKevin Ellison 6 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)28–6
- Q3 7:37GASOMatt Breida 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)21–6
- Q2 3:52USAShavarez Smith 28 Yd pass from Brandon Bridge (Aleem Sunanon PAT failed)14–6
- Q2 10:04GASOAlfred Ramsby 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)14–0
- Q1 0:00GASOMatt Breida 64 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1410, GASO Elo 1492 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA +0.9 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #85 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Georgia Southern leads 8–2 · 40% have been one-possession games
| GASO | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.17 | points / drive | 1.58 |
| 2.12 | allowed / drive | 2.15 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 31% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →