San Diego State vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 7:17SDSUSAN DIEGO ST punt return for a touchdown.19–45
- Q4 11:27UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.13–45
- Q4 11:27UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.13–44
- Q4 14:43UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.13–38
- Q4 14:43UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.13–37
- Q3 2:27SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.13–31
- Q3 11:36UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–31
- Q3 11:36UNLVUNLV rush for a touchdown.7–30
- Q2 1:09UNLVUNLV 50 yard field goal GOOD.7–24
- Q2 5:30UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–21
- Q2 5:30UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.7–20
- Q2 11:04UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 11:04UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q1 11:04UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 11:04UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 14:19SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 14:19SDSUSAN DIEGO ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SDSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNLV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassQuinn Kaehler 24/46, 239 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDonnel Pumphrey 13 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecColin Lockett 7 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCaleb Herring 20/30, 270 YDS, 5 TD
- RushTim Cornett 16 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecDevante Davis 8 REC, 171 YDS, 4 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:04UNLV +18%
Caleb Herring pass complete to Devante Davis for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:30UNLV +18%
Caleb Herring pass complete to Devante Davis for 63 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 11:04UNLV +12%
Caleb Herring pass complete to Devante Davis for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:09UNLV +7%
Nolan Kohorst 50 yard field goal GOOD
- Q3 11:36UNLV +6%
Caleb Herring rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. UNLV?
San Diego State 19, UNLV 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SDSU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 327 | Total yards | 401 |
| 239 | Passing yards | 270 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/46 | Comp/Att | 20/30 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-49 | Penalties | 3-34 |
| 32:03 | Possession | 28:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:28 SDSU go for it on 4th & 5 at UNLV 22. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:17SDSUSAN DIEGO ST punt return for a touchdown.19–45
- Q4 11:27UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.13–45
- Q4 11:27UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.13–44
- Q4 14:43UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.13–38
- Q4 14:43UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.13–37
- Q3 2:27SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.13–31
- Q3 11:36UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–31
- Q3 11:36UNLVUNLV rush for a touchdown.7–30
- Q2 1:09UNLVUNLV 50 yard field goal GOOD.7–24
- Q2 5:30UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–21
- Q2 5:30UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.7–20
- Q2 11:04UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q2 11:04UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.7–13
- Q1 11:04UNLVUNLV Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 11:04UNLVUNLV pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 14:19SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 14:19SDSUSAN DIEGO ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1246, SDSU Elo 1479 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV +6.9 (33% to win) — 3.4 points clear of SDSU's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #81 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →San Diego State leads 22–11 · 36% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →