Eastern Illinois vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Eastern Illinois

▸0040

San Diego State

0019

Final

Qualcomm Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	7	12	7	14	40
SDSU	13	3	3	0	19

EASTTeam statsSDSU

533Total yards440

361Pass318

172Rush122

21First downs24

6-173rd down7-23

2Turnovers5

22:10Possession37:50

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:30EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.40–19
• Q4 4:30EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.39–19
• Q4 13:43EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.33–19
• Q4 13:43EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS punt return for a touchdown.32–19
• Q3 7:36EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.26–19
• Q3 7:36EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.25–19
• Q3 10:57SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 38 yard field goal GOOD.19–19
• Q2 0:16SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 22 yard field goal GOOD.19–16
• Q2 3:22EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.19–13
• Q2 13:43EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.13–13
• Q1 4:25SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 35 yard field goal GOOD.7–13
• Q1 9:11SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.7–10
• Q1 9:11SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.7–10
• Q1 9:11SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.7–9
• Q1 11:14EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.7–3
• Q1 11:14EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.6–3
• Q1 12:57SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 41 yard field goal GOOD.0–3

How the model called it

Market line

SDSU −19

Against the number

EAST covered

line SDSU −19

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EAST aheadSDSU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = EAST ahead, below = SDSU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SDSU −19

Closing total

—

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 40 – 19 SDSU

consensus, liveSDSU −19

Leaders

Eastern Illinois

• PassJimmy Garoppolo 31/46, 361 YDS, 3 TD
• RushTaylor Duncan 20 CAR, 92 YDS, 2 TD
• RecKeiondre Gober 6 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD

San Diego State

• PassAdam Dingwell 27/63, 318 YDS, 4 INT
• RushColin Lockett 1 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
• RecColin Lockett 8 REC, 98 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

19.5sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

181

Points / snap

0.33

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

EAST up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

EAST went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24WGeorgia State vs Rhode Island42-35WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24WEastern Michigan vs Howard33-23LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17

Fourth downs

25 calls

EAST gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 9/10 · SDSU 9/13 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Eastern Illinois vs. San Diego State?

Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

SDSU

39%

Success rate

35%

0.10

EPA / pass

-0.10

-0.10

EPA / rush

-0.14

41%

Early-down success

36%

42%

Pass success

37%

35%

Rush success

32%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

22%

Stuffed rush rate

29%

56%

Pass rate

68%

5.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.6

EAST

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

85 scrimmage snaps

SDSU

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

96 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		SDSU
533	Total yards	440
361	Passing yards	318
172	Rushing yards	122
21	First downs	24
6-17	3rd down	7-23
1-2	4th down	1-5
31/46	Comp/Att	27/64
7.8	Yards per pass	5.0
4.8	Yards per rush	3.5
2	Turnovers	5
9-62	Penalties	7-65
22:10	Possession	37:50

Fourth downs

25 calls

EAST

9/10 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

SDSU

9/13 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 13:44 EAST punt on 4th & 1 at EAST 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.91 points.

Every call, priced (25)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 6/19 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 6/18 scoring drives

SDSUFG GOOD5 pl, 20 yds· opp 44Q1

EASTTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

SDSUTD4 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q1

EASTPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q1

SDSUFG GOOD10 pl, 60 yds· own 22Q1

EASTFUM1 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q1

SDSUPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 22Q1

EASTDOWNS5 pl, 25 yds· own 41Q1

SDSUINT3 pl, 1 yds· own 35Q1

EASTTD9 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1

SDSUPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 41Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 8Q2

SDSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 33Q2

EASTPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 8Q2

SDSUINT4 pl, 15 yds· own 22Q2

EASTTD1 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2

SDSUPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 38Q2

EASTFUM2 pl, 16 yds· own 40Q2

SDSUFG GOOD7 pl, 38 yds· opp 43Q2

EASTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 13Q3

SDSUFG GOOD7 pl, 36 yds· own 43Q3

EASTTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

SDSUPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 40Q3

EASTPUNT12 pl, 55 yds· own 1Q3

SDSUTD6 pl, 11 yds· own 4Q3

EASTTD0 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4

SDSUFUM1 pl, -6 yds· own 49Q4

EASTFG MISS6 pl, 21 yds· opp 43Q4

SDSUDOWNS12 pl, 54 yds· own 22Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 24Q4

SDSUINT5 pl, 10 yds· own 39Q4

EASTTD2 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q4

SDSUINT13 pl, 85 yds· own 8Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q4

SDSUDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 41Q4

EASTEND1 pl, -1 yds· opp 47Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:30EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.40–19
• Q4 4:30EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.39–19
• Q4 13:43EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.33–19
• Q4 13:43EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS punt return for a touchdown.32–19
• Q3 7:36EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.26–19
• Q3 7:36EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS rush for a touchdown.25–19
• Q3 10:57SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 38 yard field goal GOOD.19–19
• Q2 0:16SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 22 yard field goal GOOD.19–16
• Q2 3:22EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.19–13
• Q2 13:43EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.13–13
• Q1 4:25SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 35 yard field goal GOOD.7–13
• Q1 9:11SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.7–10
• Q1 9:11SDSUSAN DIEGO ST Extra point GOOD.7–10
• Q1 9:11SDSUSAN DIEGO ST rush for a touchdown.7–9
• Q1 11:14EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS Extra point GOOD.7–3
• Q1 11:14EASTEASTRN ILLINOIS pass complete for a touchdown.6–3
• Q1 12:57SDSUSAN DIEGO ST 41 yard field goal GOOD.0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Eastern Illinois were +19 — a 12% shot

#7 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #10 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.

The 2013 upset archive →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →