2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 |  James Madison | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +5±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.9 | +12.3 |
| 49 |  Old Dominion | Bowl team | +1.1±7.9 | 6 10 | 8 | +5.9 |
| 65 |  Texas State | Bowl team | -1.2±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.2 | +2.3 |
| 86 |  Marshall | Bowl team | -5.4±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.9 | -4.5 |
| 87 |  Troy | Bowl team | -5.6±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.7 | -4.8 |
| 94 |  Southern Miss | Bubble | -7±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.6 | -7.1 |
| 100 |  Arkansas State | Bubble | -8.1±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.2 | -8.8 |
| 103 |  Georgia Southern | Bubble | -8.4±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.5 | -9.4 |
| 105 |  Louisiana | Bubble | -8.9±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | -10.1 |
| 111 |  App State | Bubble | -9.7±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.8 | -11.4 |
| 114 |  South Alabama | Bubble | -10.5±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.4 | -12.7 |
| 122 |  Coastal Carolina | Bubble | -12±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.2 | -15.1 |
| 131 |  UL Monroe | Rebuild | -16±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.3 | -21.6 |
| 133 |  Georgia State | Rebuild | -17.8±7.9 | 2 5 | 3.8 | -24.5 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).