2026 Preseason Outlook
Preseason rating = last season's SP+ regressed toward the mean, nudged by returning production, recruited talent and recruiting-class strength — the weights LEARNED from 10 seasons by walk-forward, not guessed. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real schedule; game randomness and rating uncertainty are both folded in.
Returning-production and preseason SP+/FPI for 2026 publish in late summer. Until then this regresses 2025 final ratings toward the mean — it will sharpen automatically when those inputs land. Honest by design: every number ships with a range, never false precision.
What's in the model — and what we tested
We tested recruiting-class strength and transfer-portal movement on top of the base (last-year rating + returning production + talent). Recruiting IMPROVED the backtest (8.06→7.90 rating RMSE) and is included; the transfer portal did NOT add signal beyond talent + recruiting (8.07 RMSE) and is honestly left out.
| Feature set tested | Corr | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| base (carry+ret+talent) | 0.785 | 8.06 |
| + recruiting ✓ chosen | 0.793 | 7.90 |
| + portal | 0.784 | 8.07 |
| + recruiting + portal | 0.792 | 7.91 |
| # | Team | Outlook | Rating | Projected wins | Proj | '25 SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Indiana | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +17.5±7.9 | 8 11 | 9.6 | +32.4 |
| 2 |  Ohio State | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +16.1±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.8 | +30.1 |
| 4 |  Oregon | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +13.5±7.9 | 8 10 | 9 | +25.9 |
| 12 |  Iowa | Bowl team | +9.6±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.3 | +19.7 |
| 14 |  Washington | Bowl team | +8.8±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.7 | +18.4 |
| 15 |  Penn State | Top-25 / NY6 caliber | +8.6±7.9 | 7 10 | 8.4 | +18.1 |
| 16 |  USC | Bowl team | +7.9±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.4 | +16.9 |
| 24 |  Illinois | Bowl team | +5.4±7.9 | 6 9 | 7.6 | +12.9 |
| 26 |  Michigan | Bubble | +5.1±7.9 | 5 8 | 6.6 | +12.4 |
| 47 |  Nebraska | Bubble | +1.2±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.9 | +6.2 |
| 51 |  Northwestern | Bubble | +1±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.9 | +5.8 |
| 70 |  Minnesota | Bubble | -1.7±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.8 | +1.5 |
| 72 |  Rutgers | Bubble | -2±7.9 | 4 8 | 6.1 | +1 |
| 75 |  Maryland | Bubble | -2.2±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.9 | +0.6 |
| 82 |  Michigan State | Rebuild | -4.7±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.5 | -3.4 |
| 85 |  Wisconsin | Bubble | -5.3±7.9 | 4 7 | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 90 |  Purdue | Rebuild | -6.4±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.3 | -6.1 |
| 98 |  UCLA | Rebuild | -8±7.9 | 3 6 | 4.3 | -8.7 |
Method: next-season rating is last year's SP+ regressed toward the mean (carryover 62%, learned from 2019+), plus returning production and recruited talent when published. Win totals are a Poisson-binomial over the real 2026 schedule with game randomness and rating uncertainty both folded in — so the range is the believable band of outcomes, not a guarantee. Backtest is strictly walk-forward (fit on prior seasons only). This is a season-level outlook, not a per-game spread. Source: CollegeFootballData (SP+, returning production, talent, schedule).