Baseline 2026 stat lines from each player's 2025 per-game distribution. Projection = the player's per-game median from the 2025 season; floor/ceiling = the 15th/85th percentile of their ACTUAL game-by-game results (real variance, not an assumed model). In-season this updates with recent form and the opponent's defense vs the position.
Matchup (vs D): vs-tough/vs-easy = projection x the 10th/90th-percentile defense's yards-allowed factor, SHRUNK by a data-derived sensitivity (how much output actually tracks the matchup). In-season this uses the specific opponent's factor. Data-derived sensitivity — pass 0.83, rush 0.8, rec 0.63 (1 = output fully tracks the matchup).
| # | Player | Proj | vs D | Floor — Ceiling | TD/g | car/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam CookJacksonville State | 127 | 94 – 160 | 78 157 | 1.23 | 22.8 |
| 2 | Justice HaynesMichigan | 125 | 92 – 158 | 99 153 | 1.43 | 17.3 |
| 3 | Emmett JohnsonNebraska | 116 | 86 – 146 | 73 169 | 1 | 20.9 |
| 4 | Blake HorvathNavy | 110 | 81 – 139 | 54 157 | 1.36 | 17.3 |
| 5 | Ahmad HardyMissouri | 109 | 81 – 137 | 58 176 | 1.23 | 19.7 |
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Floor/ceiling = 15th–85th percentile of the player's actual game-by-game results in 2025(real variance). Not a market prop quote — and roster moves (transfers, draft departures) aren't folded in until rosters firm up. Source: CollegeFootballData box scores.
