Baseline 2026 stat lines from each player's 2025 per-game distribution. Projection = the player's per-game median from the 2025 season; floor/ceiling = the 15th/85th percentile of their ACTUAL game-by-game results (real variance, not an assumed model). In-season this updates with recent form and the opponent's defense vs the position.
Matchup (vs D): vs-tough/vs-easy = projection x the 10th/90th-percentile defense's yards-allowed factor, SHRUNK by a data-derived sensitivity (how much output actually tracks the matchup). In-season this uses the specific opponent's factor. Data-derived sensitivity — pass 0.83, rush 0.8, rec 0.63 (1 = output fully tracks the matchup).
| # | Player | Proj | vs D | Floor — Ceiling | TD/g | rec/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson HarrisHawai'i | 113 | 99 – 125 | 34 140 | 1.2 | 4.9 |
| 2 | Skyler BellUConn | 109 | 96 – 121 | 68 140 | 1.08 | 8.4 |
| 3 | Nik McMillanBuffalo | 108 | 95 – 120 | 13 131 | 0.25 | 5.1 |
| 4 | Danny ScuderoSan José State | 104 | 92 – 115 | 37 183 | 0.83 | 7.3 |
| 5 | Chase HendricksOhio | 98 | 86 – 109 | 35 117 | 0.58 | 5.9 |
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Floor/ceiling = 15th–85th percentile of the player's actual game-by-game results in 2025(real variance). Not a market prop quote — and roster moves (transfers, draft departures) aren't folded in until rosters firm up. Source: CollegeFootballData box scores.
