Baseline 2026 stat lines from each player's 2025 per-game distribution. Projection = the player's per-game median from the 2025 season; floor/ceiling = the 15th/85th percentile of their ACTUAL game-by-game results (real variance, not an assumed model). In-season this updates with recent form and the opponent's defense vs the position.
Matchup (vs D): vs-tough/vs-easy = projection x the 10th/90th-percentile defense's yards-allowed factor, SHRUNK by a data-derived sensitivity (how much output actually tracks the matchup). In-season this uses the specific opponent's factor. Data-derived sensitivity — pass 0.83, rush 0.8, rec 0.63 (1 = output fully tracks the matchup).
| # | Player | Proj | vs D | Floor — Ceiling | TD/g | att/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sawyer RobertsonBaylor | 314 | 264 – 360 | 194 423 | 2.58 | 41.9 |
| 2 | Walker EgetSan José State | 308 | 259 – 353 | 131 399 | 1.55 | 35.7 |
| 3 | Trinidad ChamblissOle Miss | 304 | 256 – 348 | 248 353 | 1.57 | 31.8 |
| 4 | Nick MinicucciDelaware | 304 | 256 – 348 | 210 339 | 1.77 | 39.5 |
| 5 | Caden VeltkampFlorida Atlantic | 298 | 251 – 342 | 238 354 | 2 | 42.8 |
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Floor/ceiling = 15th–85th percentile of the player's actual game-by-game results in 2025(real variance). Not a market prop quote — and roster moves (transfers, draft departures) aren't folded in until rosters firm up. Source: CollegeFootballData box scores.
