#85Zach Atkins

TE·Colorado·2025

Zach Atkins is a Versatile TE for Colorado. Zach's 2025 season produced 4.1 total EPA across 30 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zach Atkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

20 Receptions149 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume15
Explosiveness3
Consistency53
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency53th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Georgia Tech (SP+ 9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kaden Feagin	Illinois	2024	52	0.150	0.0	7.8
Robby Preckel	Northwestern	2025	42	0.060	0.1	2.5
D'Vaughn Pennamon	Ole Miss	2017	55	0.200	0.0	11.0
Jaheim Bell	South Carolina	2022	73	0.110	0.0	8.0
Blake Bell	Oklahoma	2013	63	0.070	0.1	4.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia Tech	L20-27	9.3	2	18	9.0	0	10	0.53
2	vsDelaware	W31-7	-10.9	1	7	7.0	0	7	0.10
3	@Houston	L20-36	7.4	1	1	1.0	0	1	0.40
6	@TCU	L21-35	8.3	1	8	8.0	0	8	-0.02
7	vsIowa State	W24-17	9.9	2	11	5.5	0	7	-0.06
9	@Utah	L7-53	22.2	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	vsArizona	L17-52	12.0	5	28	5.6	0	10	0.26
11	@West Virginia	L22-29	-6.8	3	20	6.7	0	10	-0.05
13	vsArizona State	L17-42	3.9	2	32	16.0	0	22	0.04
14	@Kansas State	L14-24	7.0	3	24	8.0	0	15	-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.3%

Passing plays

10.4%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

4.5%

Passing downs

6.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.14
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.04 / 2.97

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).