#2Will Pauling

WR·Notre Dame·2025

Will Pauling is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Notre Dame. Will's 2025 season produced 22.9 total EPA across 43 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Will Pauling's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

26 Receptions381 Rec yards6 Rec TD14.7 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Punt returns0 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume17
Explosiveness51
Consistency64
Pass-Down0

Player type

Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 2.82 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Syracuse (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
3	vsTexas A&M	L40-41	20.7	2	13	6.5	0	8	0.51
4	vsPurdue	W56-30	-6.1	2	29	14.5	0	21	0.93
5	@Arkansas	W56-13	5.1	3	53	17.7	1	23	1.34
6	vsBoise State	W28-7	3.1	2	43	21.5	1	24	0.07
7	vsNC State	W36-7	4.8	4	105	26.3	1	42	1.13
8	vsUSC	W34-24	16.9	2	16	8.0	1	10	-0.06
10	@Boston College	W25-10	-8.5	4	73	18.3	1	44	0.34
11	vsNavy	W49-10	6.2	2	29	14.5	0	27	0.52
12	@Pittsburgh	W37-15	8.4	3	6	2.0	0	3	-0.60
13	vsSyracuse	W70-7	-13.1	1	6	6.0	1	6	2.82
14	@Stanford	W49-20	-11.8	1	8	8.0	0	8	0.87

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.1%

Passing plays

14.3%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

4.1%

Passing downs

10.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.80
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).