#10Quadree Henderson

WR·Pittsburgh·20161.6 pts line value1st Round

Quadree Henderson is a Versatile WR for Pittsburgh. Quadree's 2016 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 98 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Quadree Henderson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

631 Rush yards5 Rush TD60 Carries10.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

26 Receptions286 Rec yards1 Rec TD11.0 Yards/rec

Returns

31 Kick returns914 KR yards3 KR TD16 Punt returns252 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs WR peers

Efficiency80
Volume33
Explosiveness27
Consistency68
Pass-Down28

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (80th percentile).
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.45 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.19 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Penn State (SP+ 19).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Kendall Hinton	Wake Forest	2015	84	0.460	2.4	38.6
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Bert Emanuel Jr.	Central Michigan	2022	53	0.460	1.6	24.4
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsVillanova	W28-7	—	4	35	8.8	0	19	0.57
2	vsPenn State	W42-39	19.0	3	47	15.7	1	24	1.19
3	@Oklahoma State	L38-45	16.4	2	31	15.5	0	22	1.11
4	@North Carolina	L36-37	15.9	3	13	4.3	0	7	0.27
5	vsMarshall	W43-27	-12.7	3	32	10.7	0	17	0.33
6	vsGeorgia Tech	W37-34	7.8	2	16	8.0	0	11	0.73
7	@Virginia	W45-31	-3.8	—	—	—	—	—	-0.19
9	vsVirginia Tech	L36-39	15.2	3	47	15.7	0	37	-0.21
10	@Miami	L28-51	18.6	1	10	10.0	0	10	0.43
11	@Clemson	W43-42	28.7	—	—	—	—	—	-0.34
12	vsDuke	W56-14	-2.8	2	10	5.0	0	6	0.53
13	vsSyracuse	W76-61	-2.7	—	—	—	—	—	0.80
1	vsNorthwestern	L24-31	2.9	3	45	15.0	0	37	0.30

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.4%

Passing plays

12.0%

Rushing plays

11.3%

Standard downs

11.1%

Passing downs

12.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.52
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.55

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.