#12Mitch Griffis

QB·Wake Forest·2023

Mitch Griffis is a Clutch Passer for Wake Forest. Mitch's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 301 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mitch Griffis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

123/207 Comp/Att1539 Pass yards9 Pass TD8 INT59.4% Comp %

Rushing

128 Rush yards2 Rush TD106 Carries1.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat36
Consistency36
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency36th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.51 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Duke (SP+ 9).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsElon	W37-17	—	19/30	329	3	1	41.2	-6	0	0.46
2	vsVanderbilt	W36-20	-12.7	17/26	196	2	0	77.9	9	0	0.40
3	@Old Dominion	W27-24	-10.1	24/41	312	3	2	19.9	-7	0	0.35
4	vsGeorgia Tech	L16-30	0.3	16/30	162	1	3	16.9	43	0	0.07
6	@Clemson	L12-17	10.5	15/25	137	0	0	53.6	25	0	-0.01
7	@Virginia Tech	L13-30	5.8	8/17	61	0	1	20.2	15	0	-0.14
9	vsFlorida State	L16-41	19.4	6/16	82	0	0	14.8	3	0	-0.13
10	@Duke	L21-24	9.4	16/19	241	0	1	53.7	55	2	0.51
11	vsNC State	L6-26	7.4	2/3	19	0	0	6.5	-9	0	-0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.4%

Passing plays

81.0%

Rushing plays

22.9%

Standard downs

40.6%

Passing downs

69.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.05
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).