#17Malachi Durant

WR·Oregon State·2025

Malachi Durant is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Oregon State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Malachi Durant's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

3 Receptions27 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume4
Explosiveness13
Consistency82
Pass-Down92

Player type

Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 2.27 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Fresno State (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	vsFresno State	L27-36	1.8	1	10	10.0	1	10	2.27
12	@Tulsa	L14-31	-10.0	1	11	11.0	0	11	1.76
14	@Washington State	L8-32	3.8	1	6	6.0	0	6	0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

1.4%

Passing plays

2.6%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

1.1%

Passing downs

1.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.56 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).