Alred Luke

WR·Missouri State·2025

Alred Luke is a Versatile WR for Missouri State. Alred's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 64 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alred Luke's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

43 Receptions640 Rec yards5 Rec TD14.9 Yards/rec

Returns

14 Kick returns257 KR yards0 KR TD12 Punt returns87 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume24
Explosiveness53
Consistency58
Pass-Down36

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.25 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs SMU (SP+ 13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@USC	L13-73	16.9	3	25	8.3	0	18	0.24
2	@Marshall	W21-20	-4.5	2	24	12.0	0	23	-0.35
3	vsSMU	L10-28	13.4	5	80	16.0	1	27	1.25
4	vsUT Martin	W42-10	—	9	110	12.2	1	24	0.84
5	vsWestern Kentucky	L22-27	1.6	3	71	23.7	0	44	0.28
7	@Middle Tennessee	W22-20	-16.0	2	25	12.5	0	19	0.32
9	@New Mexico State	W24-17	-15.5	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.62
10	vsFlorida International	W28-21	-10.5	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	@Liberty	W21-17	-9.0	2	21	10.5	0	12	0.29
12	vsUTEP	W38-24	-17.5	2	14	7.0	1	11	0.65
13	@Kennesaw State	L34-41	-5.4	5	73	14.6	0	28	0.87
14	vsLouisiana Tech	L30-42	-1.3	2	24	12.0	0	15	0.26
20	vsArkansas State	L28-34	-8.8	7	169	24.1	2	59	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.5%

Passing plays

15.2%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

9.1%

Passing downs

7.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.55
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.52 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).