#24Adam Mohammed

RB·Washington·2025

Adam Mohammed is a Explosive Back for Washington. Adam's 2025 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 96 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Adam Mohammed's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

523 Rush yards5 Rush TD106 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions138 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.1 Yards/rec

Returns

16 Kick returns420 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume42
Explosiveness38
Consistency34
Receiving61

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency34th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.15 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Colorado State (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsColorado State	W38-21	-15.6	7	25	3.6	1	2	38	0	0.56
2	vsUC Davis	W70-10	—	14	95	6.8	1	1	15	0	0.46
4	@Washington State	W59-24	3.8	6	25	4.2	0	1	16	0	-0.40
5	vsOhio State	L6-24	30.1	3	13	4.3	0	1	-5	0	-0.06
6	@Maryland	W24-20	0.6	3	7	2.3	0	1	5	0	-0.16
7	vsRutgers	W38-19	1.0	2	8	4.0	0	—	—	—	0.03
8	@Michigan	L7-24	12.4	2	9	4.5	0	2	3	0	-0.02
9	vsIllinois	W42-25	12.9	3	9	3.0	0	2	19	0	0.28
11	@Wisconsin	L10-13	-4.4	12	54	4.5	0	2	1	0	-0.10
12	vsPurdue	W49-13	-6.1	17	59	3.5	3	1	27	0	0.25
13	@UCLA	W48-14	-8.7	21	108	5.1	0	1	7	0	0.22
14	vsOregon	L14-26	25.9	14	105	7.5	0	2	18	0	0.47
20	vsBoise State	W38-10	3.1	2	6	3.0	0	1	-6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.6%

Passing plays

4.9%

Rushing plays

23.8%

Standard downs

16.2%

Passing downs

10.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.21
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).