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Dylan Larkin vs Tommy Novak

NHL

Who gets more chances, who finishes them, and whose team owns the ice when he is on it? The league's scoring numbers and ours, side by side.

2026-27 seasonregular season and playoffs so far

Every measurepct = league percentile, higher is better

Tommy Novak is ahead on 7 of 10 measures. The widest gap is shot attempts per game: Dylan Larkin sits in the 99th percentile, Tommy Novak the 47th.

MeasureLarkinNovak
Scoring · NHL
Points24
Goals12
Assists12
Ice time per game20:4115:19
His chances · ours
Expected goals per game0.7599 pct0.1967 pct
Shot attempts per game7.099 pct2.047 pct
Goals above expected+0.269 pct+1.497 pct
With him on the ice · ours
Chance share—45.9%35 pct
Chances for per 60—2.0240 pct
Chances against per 60—2.3845 pct
5-on-5 impact · ours
Net impact per 60+0.0745 pct+0.7094 pct
Creates per 60+0.1460 pct+0.6597 pct
Prevents per 60−0.0828 pct+0.0554 pct
How this is measured

Points, goals, assists and ice time are the NHL's own numbers for the season. Everything else is ours, from the shot model: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, added up for the shooter (his chances) or for everyone on the ice with him at five-on-five (with him on the ice). The impact rating also accounts for his linemates, opponents, home ice and the score. The bold number is the better of the two.

Percentiles compare each skater with the 543 skaters who have at least 22 five-on-five minutes this season; a skater under that minimum has no on-ice numbers here yet. For chances against, a higher percentile means fewer allowed. Goalies are not compared on this page. More →