John Carlson vs Jake Guentzel
Who gets more chances, who finishes them, and whose team owns the ice when he is on it? The league's scoring numbers and ours, side by side.
2026-27 seasonregular season and playoffs so far
Lightning · DJohn CarlsonChange first player
Lightning skaters
- Brandon Hagel
- Brayden Point
- Nikita Kucherov
- Pontus Holmberg
- Gage Goncalves
- Ilya Mikheyev
- Conor Geekie
- J.J. Moser
- Anthony Cirelli
- Jeffrey Viel
- John Carlson
- Erik Cernak
- Victor Hedman
- Jansen Harkins
- Zemgus Girgensons
- Charle-Edouard D'Astous
- Max Crozier
- Emil Lilleberg
- Ryan McDonagh
League chance leaders
- Leon Draisaitl
- Tomas Hertl
- Tage Thompson
- William Eklund
- Dylan Guenther
- Andrei Svechnikov
- Nick Schmaltz
- Kyle Connor
- William Nylander
- Will Cuylle
- Vasily Podkolzin
- Steven Stamkos
- Adrian Kempe
- Kirill Marchenko
- Pavel Dorofeyev
- John Tavares
- J.T. Miller
- Sam Reinhart
- Clayton Keller
- Wyatt Johnston
- Jordan Eberle
- Cole Perfetti
- Auston Matthews
- Sebastian Aho
Another club (its chance leader)
Lightning · CJake GuentzelChange second player
Lightning skaters
- Brandon Hagel
- Brayden Point
- Jake Guentzel
- Nikita Kucherov
- Pontus Holmberg
- Gage Goncalves
- Ilya Mikheyev
- Conor Geekie
- J.J. Moser
- Anthony Cirelli
- Jeffrey Viel
- Erik Cernak
- Victor Hedman
- Jansen Harkins
- Zemgus Girgensons
- Charle-Edouard D'Astous
- Max Crozier
- Emil Lilleberg
- Ryan McDonagh
League chance leaders
- Leon Draisaitl
- Tomas Hertl
- Tage Thompson
- William Eklund
- Dylan Guenther
- Andrei Svechnikov
- Nick Schmaltz
- Kyle Connor
- William Nylander
- Will Cuylle
- Vasily Podkolzin
- Steven Stamkos
- Adrian Kempe
- Kirill Marchenko
- Pavel Dorofeyev
- John Tavares
- J.T. Miller
- Sam Reinhart
- Clayton Keller
- Wyatt Johnston
- Jordan Eberle
- Cole Perfetti
- Auston Matthews
- Sebastian Aho
Another club (its chance leader)
Every measurepct = league percentile, higher is better
Jake Guentzel is ahead on 9 of 12 measures. The widest gap is expected goals per game: Jake Guentzel sits in the 90th percentile, John Carlson the 42nd.
| Measure | Carlson | Guentzel |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring · NHL | ||
| Points | 2 | 3 |
| Goals | 0 | 1 |
| Assists | 2 | 2 |
| Ice time per game | 20:42 | 21:13 |
| His chances · ours | ||
| Expected goals per game | 0.0942 pct | 0.3690 pct |
| Shot attempts per game | 3.073 pct | 3.379 pct |
| Goals above expected | −0.329 pct | −1.14 pct |
| With him on the ice · ours | ||
| Chance share | 59.1%71 pct | 59.2%72 pct |
| Chances for per 60 | 2.3852 pct | 3.3989 pct |
| Chances against per 60 | 1.6580 pct | 2.3347 pct |
| 5-on-5 impact · ours | ||
| Net impact per 60 | +0.3273 pct | +0.5690 pct |
| Creates per 60 | +0.1662 pct | +0.5394 pct |
| Prevents per 60 | +0.1680 pct | +0.0451 pct |
How this is measured
Points, goals, assists and ice time are the NHL's own numbers for the season. Everything else is ours, from the shot model: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, added up for the shooter (his chances) or for everyone on the ice with him at five-on-five (with him on the ice). The impact rating also accounts for his linemates, opponents, home ice and the score. The bold number is the better of the two.
Percentiles compare each skater with the 543 skaters who have at least 22 five-on-five minutes this season; a skater under that minimum has no on-ice numbers here yet. For chances against, a higher percentile means fewer allowed. Goalies are not compared on this page. More →