Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV KDFW 4, Prime Video·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Stars
to win
45%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL.109vs.052GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.525vs-.1065v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · TOR Jim Hiller
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 16th3.07
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 31st3.60
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 15th21.3%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 8th81.2%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 3rd54.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).