Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks
TV Prime Video, The Spot·Honda Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Lightning
to win
45%
Ducks
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.486win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.207vs-.049GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.569vs-.0415v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors ANAANA at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6090% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/6010% to start26 career GP
Ducks
Lukas Dostal-0.03 GSAx/6049% to start189 career GP
Ville Husso-0.17 GSAx/6032% to start174 career GP
Laurent Brossoit+0.11 GSAx/6018% to start151 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · ANA Joel Quenneville
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 13th3.23
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 29th3.51
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 23rd18.6%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 27th76.4%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 25th48.0%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).