Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings
TV ABTV , The Spot·Crypto.com Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Lightning
to win
51%
Kings
- Expected goals
- 2.9–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.489win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.035GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors LAK.294vs.6265v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors LAKLAK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Kings
Darcy Kuemper+0.05 GSAx/6061% to start529 career GP
Anton Forsberg0.00 GSAx/6039% to start230 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · LAK Peter Laviolette
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
A. Kempe36 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 29th2.68
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 28th17.0%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 30th74.6%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 17th49.8%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).