Utah Mammoth at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, Utah16·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Mammoth
to win
51%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.500vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.093vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.030vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors UTA.397vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
- Back-to-backfavors UTATBL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMammoth
Karel Vejmelka+0.03 GSAx/6099% to start268 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: UTA André Tourigny · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2710th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 2.9310th
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 20.0%18th
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 78.1%19th
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 49.2%23rd
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).