Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins

49%

Capitals

to win

51%

Bruins

Expected goals

2.9–3.0

Goes to overtime

22%

← favors favors →

• Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH
  .516vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
• Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH
  .013vs-.0585v5 xG diff / 60
• Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS
  .169vs.201GSAx / 60
• Projected lineupsfavors WSH
  .577vs.4675v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
• Home icefavors BOS
  BOS at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

• WSH attack vs BOS defenseFavors WSH attack
  2.54 6th2.52 21st
  5v5 xG / 60 · created by the attack, allowed by the defense
• BOS attack vs WSH defenseEven
  2.46 21st2.53 24th
  5v5 xG / 60 · created by the attack, allowed by the defense
• WSH power play vs BOS penalty killFavors WSH attack
  0.70 19th0.75 32nd
  xG / game · created by the attack, allowed by the defense
• BOS power play vs WSH penalty killFavors BOS attack
  0.70 21st0.73 29th
  xG / game · created by the attack, allowed by the defense

Expected goals from our shot model, recent games weighted most. Bars are league rank: a full bar is the best of 32.

38%

WSH in regulation

22%

Overtime or shootout

40%

BOS in regulation

If it goes past regulation: WSH 50%·BOS 50%

Likeliest final scores –

• 2–34.8%
• 3–24.7%
• 2–43.6%
• 3–43.5%
• 4–33.5%
• 4–23.4%

Capitals

• 
  Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60

  59% to start218 career GP
• 
  Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60

  41% to start175 career GP

Bruins

• 
  Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/60

  99% to start271 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

• 

  A. Tuch

  66
  Points
  

  D. Pastrnak

  100
• 

  A. Tuch

  33
  Goals
  

  M. Geekie

  39
• 

  D. Strome

  39
  Assists
  

  D. Pastrnak

  71

WSH

• Jordan KyrouR · for +0.66 · against +0.30+0.96
• Tom WilsonR · for +0.28 · against +0.26+0.54
• Cole HutsonD · for +0.18 · against +0.21+0.39

BOS

• James HagensC · for +0.48 · against +0.42+0.90
• David PastrnakR · for +0.49 · against +0.02+0.51
• Hampus LindholmD · for +0.04 · against +0.25+0.29

How much a skater moves his team's 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes, after accounting for who he plays with and against. The big number is the net; chances created and chances prevented are beside the name.

3.1815th

Goals for / game

10th3.27

2.907th

Goals against / game

14th3.01

17.8%25th

Power play

9th23.4%

80.1%14th

Penalty kill

24th77.0%

49.3%20th

Faceoffs

4th53.1%

• Nov 21@
• Feb 25@this game
• Mar 26@