Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights
TV ALT, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Avalanche
to win
53%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.337vs1.035v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · VGK Ryan Craig
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
M. Stone28 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).