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Predators at Capitals
NHL

Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Washington Capitals
▸4
FinalTV FDSNSO, MNMT·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Nashville Predators 4-2. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael McCarron's goal at 1:17 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 9% to 24%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were NSH 29, WSH 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.6 goals below expected; Logan Thompson stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jakob Chychrun (2 G, 1 A), 2. Logan Thompson (27 saves, .931), 3. Pierre-Luc Dubois (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Chychrun2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WSH
    L. Thompson27 saves, .931
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    P. Dubois1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH01111018229
WSHWSH21211216430

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    T. Wilson(23)
    P. Dubois (1), J. Chychrun (25)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:15
  2. WSH
    P. Dubois(1)PPG
    D. Strome (30), J. Carlson (36)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:48

2nd period

  1. WSH
    J. Chychrun(20)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.03win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    8:42
  2. NSH
    J. Marchessault(10)
    E. Haula (20), A. Wilsby (10)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-3
    17:40

3rd period

  1. NSH
    M. McCarron(5)
    C. Smith (4), A. Wilsby (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:17
  2. WSH
    J. Chychrun(21)PPG
    D. Strome (31), A. Ovechkin (26)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +7 ptsVideo
    2-4
    13:11

Penalties

NSH 12 PIM·WSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:54NSHOzzy Wiesblatt · Trippingdrawn by Trevor van Riemsdyk2 min
  • 15:35WSHAlex Ovechkin · Interferencedrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 17:47NSHBrady Skjei · Trippingdrawn by Alex Ovechkin2 min

2nd

  • 2:52WSHRyan Leonard · Cross checkingdrawn by Ozzy Wiesblatt2 min
  • 3:39NSHJonathan Marchessault · Slashingdrawn by Nic Dowd2 min
  • 15:15NSHErik Haula · High stickingdrawn by Jakob Chychrun2 min
  • 15:19WSHJustin Sourdif · Hookingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min

3rd

  • 10:14NSHBrady Skjei · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Leonard2 min
  • 13:03NSHJonathan Marchessault · Slashingdrawn by Nic Dowd2 min
  • 15:26WSHRasmus Sandin · Slashingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalNSH goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Michael McCarron, 3rd 1:17 — NSH 9% → 24%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Protas · Missed · xG 0.26T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.21E. Frank · On goal · xG 0.14T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.14J. Chychrun · Goal · xG 0.13J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.12J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.12P. Dubois · Goal · xG 0.10A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.09N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.07R. Leonard · Missed · xG 0.07A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.07R. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.06A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.06J. Sourdif · Missed · xG 0.06P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.05J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.05E. Frank · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.04J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.04N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · Goal · xG 0.03R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Roy · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02M. Roy · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.01D. Strome · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sourdif · On goal · xG 0.01T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.01R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.00T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.00B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.00J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.00
WSH4 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsWSH
3.42 G
All situations
4 G2.4
2.72 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.70 G
Power play
2 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH66%34%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.32 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsWSH
29
Shots on goal
30
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/4
Power play
2/6
12
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
26
8
Blocked shots
18
15
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000030.24000—28:18
90R. O'ReillyC000040.450105321:11
20J. BarronD000+120.07400—18:46
76B. SkjeiD000010.00114—18:44
56E. HaulaL011020.230026418:34
91S. StamkosC000020.422002018:33
77L. EvangelistaR000010.20010—18:13
41N. HagueD000-100.04000—17:09
81J. MarchessaultR101040.53104—17:07
83A. WilsbyD022+110.09010—16:38
9F. ForsbergL000-110.11000—16:15
48N. PerbixD000-100.00010—16:08
47M. McCarronC101+140.522004415:45
58M. BuntingL000+120.17010—14:57
36C. SmithR011+100.00410—14:25
17T. JostC000-110.150108009:30
49R. SchaeferL000010.15300—06:33
89O. WiesblattC000-100.05102006:31
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(L)30264.8672.39-1.6156:41

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).