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Predators at Flames
NHL

Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Calgary Flames
3
FinalTV FDSNSO, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Calgary Flames 4-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nicolas Hague's goal at 19:31 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 49% to 97%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.5 to 2.0; shots on goal were NSH 36, CGY 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.1 goals below expected; Dustin Wolf stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Bunting (1 G, 3 A), 2. Blake Coleman (1 G), 3. Nicolas Hague (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    M. Bunting1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    B. Coleman1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    N. Hague1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH21611317436
CGYCGY2110319323

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    Y. Kuznetsov(3)
    M. Weegar (12), J. Huberdeau (13)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:56
  2. NSH
    E. Haula(6)
    M. Bunting (11), S. Stamkos (9)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:19
  3. NSH
    E. Haula(7)
    S. Stamkos (10), M. Bunting (12)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:52
  4. CGY
    R. Andersson(9)
    M. Coronato (12)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:41

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Bunting(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:08

3rd period

  1. CGY
    B. Coleman(13)
    M. Backlund (16), M. Coronato (13)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +35 ptsVideo
    3-3
    12:49
  2. NSH
    N. Hague(2)
    M. Bunting (13), M. McCarron (7)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +48 ptsVideo
    4-3
    19:31

Penalties

NSH 28 PIM·CGY 26 PIM

1st

  • 13:15NSHCole Smith · Fightingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg5 min
  • 13:15CGYRyan Lomberg · Fightingdrawn by Cole Smith5 min
  • 13:15CGYJohn Beecher · Roughingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 13:15NSHMichael McCarron · Roughingdrawn by John Beecher2 min
  • 13:15NSHMichael McCarron · Misconduct10 min
  • 13:15CGYJohn Beecher · Misconduct10 min
  • 15:20CGYKevin Bahl · Slashingdrawn by Reid Schaefer2 min

2nd

  • 6:57NSHFedor Svechkov · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
  • 9:52NSHNicolas Hague · Fightingdrawn by John Beecher5 min
  • 9:52CGYJohn Beecher · Fightingdrawn by Nicolas Hague5 min
  • 13:55CGYBlake Coleman · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 13:55NSHMichael Bunting · Embellishment2 min

3rd

  • 2:05NSHErik Haula · High stickingdrawn by Joel Farabee2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalNSH goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Nicolas Hague, 3rd 19:31 — NSH 49% → 97%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.19Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.16M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.15R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.14R. Andersson · Goal · xG 0.13J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.11C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.11N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.10B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.10B. Coleman · Goal · xG 0.07B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.06M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.06B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.05M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.04C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04K. Bahl · Missed · xG 0.04Y. Kuznetsov · Goal · xG 0.03Y. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.02R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.02K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.01A. Klapka · Missed · xG 0.01M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.00R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.00K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 2.0 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCGY
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.0
2.54 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH61%39%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 1.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCGY
36
Shots on goal
23
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/1
Power play
0/2
28
Penalty minutes
26
23
Hits
26
15
Blocked shots
12
22
Giveaways
17
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000030.12010—22:52
48N. PerbixD000+130.10240—20:09
90R. O'ReillyC000-140.310205418:50
56E. HaulaL202+160.400026718:29
76B. SkjeiD000-130.07100—18:29
41N. HagueD101+110.03015—18:21
9F. ForsbergL000-210.132005018:15
91S. StamkosC022+320.443105618:11
36C. SmithR000+110.097153317:33
77L. EvangelistaR000-210.01010—17:33
58M. BuntingL134+320.12002—16:23
37N. BlankenburgD000030.11110—16:16
83A. WilsbyD000-120.06010—14:43
17T. JostC000010.100105012:39
47M. McCarronC011+120.0420127712:39
49R. SchaeferL000010.39410—12:23
40F. SvechkovC000000.001022010:46
20J. BarronD000+100.00000—09:29
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(W)23203.8701.95-1.0560:00

Season series

NSH leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).